The Bowtie Economist's Daily Dose of 70-Word Wisdom

Recent research shows that for every percentage point that mortgage market rates exceed the rate currently enjoyed by the homeowner, the probability of sale is reduced 18.1%. This led to a 57% reduction in home sales with fixed-rate mortgages in…

The Friday File: Between 19Q1-24Q1 the market share of fast casual and quick service restaurants (QSR) that primarily sell chicken rose from 13.4% to 15.3%. Conversely, those selling primarily burgers declined from 61.3% to 60%, and the percentage specializing in…

The Fed is calling for real GDP growth of 2.1% in 2024 and 2% in 2025. Simultaneously, the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office estimates that potential GDP, that is the increase in the labor force plus the impact of rising productivity,…

In another sign that inflation should soften, the NY Fed’s Global Supply Chain Pressure Index declined from -0.30 in March to -0.85 in April. It’s been below zero each of the last five months and 12 of the last 13…

After peaking in CY2016 at 17.5 million, sales of cars and light trucks steadily slid and by CY2019 were 17 million. Between 2020-2022, sales were dismal and peaked in CY2021 at 15 million. While sales rose to 15.5 million units…

After four months of larger than expected monthly job growth, April employment grew 175,000, it’s fourth lowest gain since 1/21. This pushed the unemployment rate up to 3.9%, Y-o-Y wage growth down to 3.9%, and the workweek also softened. All…

The Fun Finale: Sometime in May, when the soil temperature eight inches deep reaches 65 degrees, trillions of cicadas will emerge, mate, lay eggs and then die, all in about five weeks. What makes this year special is that Brood…

President Biden’s student debt cancellation plans will cost between $870 billion and $1.4 trillion. $620 billion has already been spent, and the latest plan will cost between $250-$750 billion more. That’s more than will be spent on universal pre-K and…

While the Y-o-Y change in the 24Q1 Employment Cost Index (measuring wages, salaries, and quickly-rising benefits), came in at 4.2%, and the Q-o-Q reading was an uncomfortably hot 1.2%, this does not necessarily portend high inflation. The 24Q1 productivity reading…

If TikToc gets banned in the US, and that may take a while as the courts will be involved, the biggest winners are likely to be Meta’s Facebook and Instagram, and Alphabet’s YouTube and their respective video platforms Reels and…