The Bowtie Economist's Daily Dose of 70-Word Wisdom

While June housing starts were up 3% M-o-M to a 1.353-million-unit annualized rate, the rise was all volatile multifamily driven. Single-family starts fell 2.2% and are now down four months in a row. Moreover, June starts came in at 980,000…

Yesterday’s release of the Fed’s Beige Book, covering economic activity from mid-May through the end of June, will not be a best seller. While seven Fed districts exhibited growth, five districts recorded “flat or declining activity”. That is down from…

The state average mortgage interest rate varies from 3.8% in Colorado and Utah to 4.5% in Mississippi and West Virginia. Eight states are at 4.3% including FL, NY, and TX. General average rates rise as you move east. The variation…

Traditionally, house prices have declined when months-of-inventory exceeds six months. However, in 2022 we saw prices fall for seven months despite months-of-inventory in the 3s! That was probably a knee-jerk reaction to rapidly rising rates and memories of 2008/09. Months-of-supply…

Inflation, as measured by the CPI, declined 0.1% in June, the first M-o-M decline since 5/20 as inflation pressures continue receding. Y-o-Y inflation was 3.0%, the lowest reading since 6/23. Core inflation, a better measure, rose a scant 0.1% M-o-M,…

The Friday File: In 2008, data centers around the world collectively used almost 50 terawatts (TWh) of power. By 2012 usage had roughly doubled to almost 100 TWh, and by 2017 had doubled again to 200 TWh. At present, usage…

On 7/6/24, 3.013 million people passed through US airport security checkpoints. This was the first time the total surpassed 3 million, is up 14% from the same day Y-o-Y, and breaks the previous record of 2.99 million set on 6/23/24.…

The U.S. trade deficit steadily improved from a monthly high of $102 billion in 3/22 to $60 billion in 8/23, and the improvement unsurprisingly boosted GDP growth. Since then, however, it has worsened in eight of the last nine months…

Through the end of 24H1, only 18.2% of actively managed mutual funds and exchange-traded funds that compare their performance to the unmanaged S&P 500 index bested it. Believe it or not, that dismal average is down from 19.2% in 23H1…