Econ70

While short-term rates are extremely low, the Fed Funds rate is at 0.375%; monetary policy isn’t all that expansionary! The real interest rate — the fed funds rate minus inflation -– is roughly -1.25%, yet the rate that is neither…

While Brexit has created more than ample turmoil and confusion, it’s made the USA the undisputed largest economy in the world. According to the World Bank, prior to Brexit the EU had a collective GDP of $18.5 trillion, but post…

The Friday File: 60 years ago, Eisenhower signed the US Interstate Highway System into law. Expected to take 12 years to complete, it officially took 35. Since 1956, the number of miles traveled/year has grown from 625 billion to 3…

Headline inflation, as measured by the personal consumption expenditure (PCE) price index, the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measure, was 0.2% in May and 0.9% Y-o-Y. Core inflation, which excludes food and energy, was also 0.2% in May and just 1.6%…

Total US revenues received by drug manufacturers in 2015 were $310 billion, up 8.5% from the 2014 level of $285 billion, which was, in turn, up 10.5% from 2013. These numbers exclude mark-ups and added costs associated with medicines reaching…

The Medicare trust-fund, which provides coverage to 55 million Americans, will exhaust its reserves by 2028. Similarly, the Social Security trust-fund, which provides retirement benefits to 49 million Americans, will be depleted by 2034, triggering a 21% benefit cut if…

Last year, US exports to the UK were $55 billion, 2.5% of exports; just 0.3% of US GDP. The direct effects of a slump in the UK will be hardly noticed. The indirect effects are what matters. Heading the list;…

The Friday File: Shockingly, the UK voted to exit the EU. Sterling has touched levels last seen in 1985. Visit London!! Impacts here will be negative; GDP will be clipped by two-tenths of a percentage point through mid/late 2017, bond…

Sales of new single-family homes in May were seasonally adjusted at 551,000, 6% below April’s level and 8.7% above the 5/15 level. More generally, only since April have new home sales exceeded 2008 levels and YTD sales are just 241,000,…

While the labor force participation rate has been declining, the declines are in households in the bottom third of the income distribution. The LFPR for men in the top two-thirds has been flat since 1980 while it’s fallen from 80%…