Econ70

Portions of Trump’s 2017 tax cut have already sunset, others will expire in 2025. Extending the unexpired sections will cost $5 trillion through 2034 but will have no impact on GDP or inflation as they will simply extend existing policies.…

While the polls were once again disturbingly poor in telling us how voters planned to vote, prediction markets that rely on the wisdom of markets to offer odds on a candidate winning were materially better. The average odds from five…

While VP Harris has a bachelor’s degree in political science and economics, and former president Trump graduated with a degree in economics, you would be hard pressed to know it from their campaigns. Both candidates haven’t just demoted economic principles…

October employment growth was 12,000, the worst gain since 12/20. However, the Boeing strike reduced employment by 46,000 and the hurricanes undoubtedly also hurt. The unemployment rate held steady at 4.1% but only because the labor force declined by 220,000.…

The Friday File: In 2023, Americans spent $2.7 billion eating 5.1 billion servings of instant noodles, good enough for sixth in the world, and a per capita consumption of an impressive 15.2 servings. The U.S. remains well behind #1 China…

24Q3 GDP came in strong at 2.8% annualized inflation-adjusted, with consumer spending rising a heady 3.7%, and not one component on the consumer side declined! Capital expenditures rose 11.1% and government chipped in with 5% growth, led by defense spending.…

At the onset of the 2008 Housing Bust, there was an excess supply of houses of 1.25 million, and that exacerbated the subsequent steep decline in home prices. Currently, there is a shortage of housing. Estimates, using very different methodologies,…

While you can get exceedingly wealthy buying just one stock, chances are this approach will fail you. From 1926-2022, over 50% of firms had a cumulative negative total return over their lifetime, 59% underperformed T-bills, a very low bar. Moreover,…

In late August, the Penn Wharton budget model showed former President Trump’s fiscal policies running up the debt by an added $4.1 trillion through 2034, and VP Harris by -$2 trillion. Since then, it’s gotten worse. According to the bipartisan…

The Friday File: In 1974, the inaugural of the World Championship Pumpkin Weigh-off, the winning gourd weighed 132 pounds. Since then, it’s ballooned. By 1985, the supreme squash exceeded 500 pounds, by 2000, 1,000 pounds, and in 2015 it crossed…