Archive for January 2025

The Friday File: Since 1930, the year of the pig has had the best S&P 500 average annual return at a snorting 15%. In second, the rooster/rabbit, both at 12%/year. The tiger follows at 10%/year, the rat returns 9%/year, and the monkey an intelligent 8%/year. The Ox/horse/dragon/dog each average 6%/year, while sheep offer a baah-baric…

While initial claims for unemployment remain steady, low, and no different than they were pre-Covid, at about 220,000 claims/week, it’s continuing claims that are raising mild alarm bells. From mid-2018 until Covid they were generally below 1.7 million/week. Since bottoming the week of 6/4/24 at 1.34 million they have steadily risen and hit a 38-month…

December new homes sales jumped 3.6% M-o-M to 698,000 annualized units. That reduced builder inventory from 8.7 months in November to 8.5 months. However, it’s taking homebuilders longer to sell completed homes, 2.8 months in December versus 2.5 months in November. It’s because sales of completed units fell 10.1% M-o-M, but sales of units under…

The US federal budget deficit for FY25Q1 was a staggering $711 billion. The FY25Q1 deficit was $201 billion or 39% higher than the $510 billion deficit of FY24Q1. Spending was $1.8 trillion, up 11%, while revenues were $1.1 trillion, down 2%. Interest payments on the debt were $308 billion, up 7% Y-o-Y. What’s most worrying…

December existing home sales rose 2.2% M-o-M and 9.2% Y-o-Y, the third straight month of rising Y-o-Y sales after declining Y-o-Y for over three straight years. However, 2024 existing home sales fell to their lowest level since 1995, when the population was 70 million smaller, and 2024 was the second straight year of dismal activity.…

The Friday File: The longest presidential inaugural speech was by William Henry Harrison at 8,445 words, it was delivered on a bitterly cold, wet day. He died a month later of pneumonia. The shortest was Washington’s second inaugural address at just 135 words, FDR’s fourth inaugural was the next shortest at 559 words. Trump’s first…

In 2024, the income needed to buy a median priced home of $429,734 and spend no more than 30% of income on housing was $116,782. A buyer with the median income of $83,782, would have to spend 41.8% of their income on housing. While that is a slight improvement from 42.2% in 2023, 2024 ranks…

In 2024 and 2023, only 29% of firms in the S&P 500 index beat the index. This lopsidedness means relatively few companies are doing very well, and a majority are performing below average. From 2000-2022, the percentage was about 50%, which is what you would generally expect. Aside from 2020, the last time the percentage…

While the LA fires are likely to go down as the costliest climate disaster in US history, and may top $300 billion, 1% of GDP, the national economic impact is likely to be small. Maybe a 0.2% drag in GDP in 25Q1, a loss of 30,000 jobs, and a rise of 0.1% in inflation. Locally,…

December housing starts were a surprisingly strong 1.499 million units seasonally adjusted and annualized, up 51.3% M-o-M. But three things make this number suspect. First, two-thirds of the rise came in the South where hurricanes Helene and Milton did extensive damage. Second, multifamily starts soared 61.5% M-o-M, single-family rose a pedestrian 3.5% M-o-M. Finally, weather…