Archive for December 2024

I want to wish everyone a great, risk-adjusted 2025. May it be a year of low unemployment, high wage gains, world peace, deep sleep, unbridled joy, deep love, robust health, falling inflation, a steepening yield curve, and a soft landing. My resolution is to buy a better crystal ball and improve my forecasting. Lastly, thank…

Yesterday, President Jimmy Carter, the 39th President of the US, died. He was 100, making him the longest-lived president in US history. He was born in Plains, GA, at a hospital where his mother was a nurse, making him the first president-to-be born in a hospital. He earned the Nobel Peace Prize in 1992 and…

The Friday File: The top Christmas song based on all-time Spotify royalties is Mariah Carey’s ‘All I Want for Christmas is You,’ with 2.01 billion streams resulting in $8.04 million in royalties. ‘Last Christmas’ by Wham, follows with 1.69 billion streams and $6.77 million in royalties. Third is Brenda Lee’s ‘Rockin’ Around the Christmas Tree,’…

If you think it odd that the Fed has cut rates by 100bps over the last three months, yet 10-year Treasury rates are rising, you would be correct. The Fed has cut rates seven times since 1989, including the recent cuts. Four times rates noticeably fell, twice they rose trivially, and this time 10-year Treasury…

Inflation, as measured by the Christmas Price Index and based on purchasing each day’s items once in “The Twelve Days of Christmas,” jumped 5.4%, double last year’s 2.7%, and are a tree-topping $49,263. Birds, including partridges, doves, hens, calling birds, geese-a-laying, and swans-a-swimming rose 1%. The pear tree, a housing proxy, was up 17%, and…

The first night of Chanukah always falls on the 24th of Kislev. But the Jewish calendar is a lunar calendar with leap months, so to keep months and seasons aligned over the last 50-years Chanukah has started as early as 11/27 and as late as 12/26. This year, Christmas day and the first night of…

The Friday File: In 2023, Christmas tree prices spiked and peaked on Thanksgiving at $131. They then steadily declined and were down to $100 on 12/10, $80 by 12/18, $60 by 12/23 and $55 on Christmas Day. This means the price to have a Christmas tree for every extra day before Christmas costs $2.38 and…

Americans need income of almost $800,000/year to be in the top 1%, but the amount varies dramatically by state. At the high end, DC leads the way with a necessary income of $1.22 million/year, followed closely by Connecticut at $1.17 million, Massachusetts at $1.13 million, and California at $1.05 million. At the other end, it…

Markets slumped badly today for two reasons. While the Fed cut rates 25bps as expected, it plans to cut rates less in 2025, but don’t worry, this Fed will change its mind, it always does. Also, a stop-gap bill to avoid a Friday government closure is on life support due to internal Republican public infighting…

Amazon (AMZN) is worth $2.45 trillion, and Blue Origin, albeit not public, is probably worth $40 billion. Conversely, the Washington Post (WPO), unable to hire an Executive Editor for months and hemorrhaging talent and subscribers, is worth $4 billion. If you were Jeff Bezos, which of the three would you sacrifice to curry favor with…