Archive for October 2024

24Q3 GDP came in strong at 2.8% annualized inflation-adjusted, with consumer spending rising a heady 3.7%, and not one component on the consumer side declined! Capital expenditures rose 11.1% and government chipped in with 5% growth, led by defense spending. What’s amazing is that Y-o-Y GDP growth is 2.7% despite a very high Fed funds…

At the onset of the 2008 Housing Bust, there was an excess supply of houses of 1.25 million, and that exacerbated the subsequent steep decline in home prices. Currently, there is a shortage of housing. Estimates, using very different methodologies, peg the gap at between 1.5 million and 5.5 million units. The average is 3.4…

While you can get exceedingly wealthy buying just one stock, chances are this approach will fail you. From 1926-2022, over 50% of firms had a cumulative negative total return over their lifetime, 59% underperformed T-bills, a very low bar. Moreover, three stocks were responsible for 10% of the stock market’s total return, just 72 firms…

In late August, the Penn Wharton budget model showed former President Trump’s fiscal policies running up the debt by an added $4.1 trillion through 2034, and VP Harris by -$2 trillion. Since then, it’s gotten worse. According to the bipartisan Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, the proposed added spending and tax cuts by the…

The Friday File: In 1974, the inaugural of the World Championship Pumpkin Weigh-off, the winning gourd weighed 132 pounds. Since then, it’s ballooned. By 1985, the supreme squash exceeded 500 pounds, by 2000, 1,000 pounds, and in 2015 it crossed 2,000 pounds. Last year the winning jack-o-lantern came in at 2,749 pounds. This year’s heavyweight…

The IMF expects 2024/25 global growth to be 3.2%, down from 3.3% in 2023, and well down from the 3.8%/year it averaged between 2000-2019. It sees U.S. growth at 2.8% this year, and in 2025, it forecasts U.S. growth of 2.2% as it sees the deficit shrinking. However, advanced economies, which include the U.S., are…

Since the Fed cut rates by 50bps on 9/18/24, the 10-year Treasury has steadily risen from 3.68% to the current 4.23%. This is because investors think the rate cut is better for stocks than bonds because there is now increasing hope that a soft landing gets replaced with no landing. Add rising inflation fears, massive…

Increasing personal income tax rates across-the-board by 10% without any income exemptions would raise $221 billion/year in new revenue. With a $100,000/year exemption, this policy would raise $166 billion/year. With a $250,000/year threshold, revenue growth is $90 billion/year, and at Biden/Harris’ $400,000/year threshold, which excludes 95% of all payers, revenues raised are only $71 billion/year.…

From 1973-1983, U.S. oil & gas extraction employment doubled from 130,000 to 260,000. In the ensuing bust, employment sank to 120,000 in 2004. During the shale boom, employment largely recovered and peaked at 200,000 2014/15. It’s since steadily declined, bottomed out in 2022, and is now up slightly to 120,000. Yet, U.S. 2024 production is…

The Friday File: Through the first five weeks of the NFL season, place kicker accuracy has never been better at 86%, and 98% from 39 yards or less. But the real story is kicks of 50+ yards. Kickers are currently making 76% of those kicks, the prior record success rate was 69%, and are on…