Archive for March 2020

For the week ending 3/18/20, home equity loans outstanding rose $2.3 billion to $317.2 billion. Outside of an increase during the last government closure, this was the first increase in home equity loans since the week ending 2/1/12, when they rose $4.7 billion to $553 billion. This is identical to the many firms preemptively drawing…

Between hospitality & leisure, store-based retail, and other sectors that face forced limitations, about 36% of the US economy is being impacted in the effort to curb the spread of Covid-19. If the restrictions reduce activity in these sectors by two-thirds, GDP will decline by a whopping 24%, and quickly! GDP is probably falling 6%/month,…

The Friday File: 8% of American who were recently surveyed considered “binge-watching” to consist of watching two straight episodes of a show. 27% thought three back-to-back episodes qualified as binge-watching, and 22% thought four episodes is what is needed. 13% thought it was five episodes, 5% considered the magic number six, 10% thought it was…

For the past several years, weekly job losses averaged about 225,000/week. Last week they jumped to 282,000, and the all-time high was 695,000 set during the week ending 10/2/82. During the Great Recession, first time unemployment claims peaked at 665,000 during the week ending 3/28/09. Last week, the week ending 3/20/20, they hit a knee-buckling…

On first review, it looks like the $2 trillion Coronavirus aid package is good. Assorted aid to adversely affected individuals and families, loans to businesses both big and small, incentives for firms to hold on to their employees, as well as aid to state/local governments, and health-care providers. But, incredulously, Congress can’t seem to pass…

While many industries and business need a rescue package, so do airlines and their employees. In the case of airlines, there must be a quid pro quo. While some want to prevent share buybacks, why not ban baggage and change fees? Better yet, increase competition by forcing every dominant airport airline to give gate slots…

This morning, the Fed essentially said it would do “whatever it takes” to keep credit markets functioning after doing the same for funding markets last week. The Fed is committed to unlimited quantitative easing (which will help housing), the purchase of corporate bonds, lending to small and midsize business and more! The Fed is being…

The Friday File: The average American flushes 57 sheets of toilet paper/day, almost 21,000 sheets/year; slightly over 100 rolls/annum. That works out to 384 trees over a lifetime! US spending on toilet paper rolls up to $9 billion/year; $27.70/person. For the week ending 3/7/20, US retailers cleaned up; toilet paper sales jumped a remarkable 60%.…

For the week ending 3/16/20, hotel occupancy rates fell 24.4% Y-o-Y. In PA, NJ and DE, February manufacturing activity plummeted to its lowest level since 7/12; in NY, manufacturing declined more. For the week ending 3/14, job losses jumped 70,000 to 281,000, the highest level in years. Next week’s job loss numbers will triple, maybe…

While our debt is painfully high at slightly over 100% of GDP, now isn’t the time to start worrying about it! Give the healthcare sector whatever it needs, giving everyone $1,000 is a decent idea given the immense time crunch we are under, ensuring that the Fed can act as a lender of last resort…