Month: January 2018

While Bitcoin and other crypto-currencies are the rage for some, for others it’s Swiss National Bank shares! Shares are up 320% since 1/31/16 to 5,480 francs ($5,866). Sure, they print their own money, but private shareholders have limited voting rights,…

The US has a relatively large $500 billion/year trade deficit, 2.5% of GDP. While tariffs on solar panels and washing machines may slightly boost US manufacturing activity, they may also encourage trade retaliation. Think of China buying planes from Airbus,…

Inflation-adjusted GDP in 17Q4 grew at a realistic annualized rate of 2.6% after growing at slightly over 3% in 17Q3 and 17Q2. In 2017, GDP grew by 2.3%. While not sizzling growth, it’s pretty good given that this recovery will,…

The Friday File: America is clearly aging. The most popular beer in the US in 2017 was Bud Light with a 15.4% market share, down sharply from 16.2% a year earlier. Number two was Coors Light with a 7.6% market…

On the plus side, existing home sales in 2017 hit 5.51 million, their highest level since 6.478 million in 2006. But, existing sales are up trivially from 5.45 million in 2016, and 5.25 million in 2015. Why? A complete lack…

2017 was the best year ever for US intermodal (shipping container) loads. Originations were 14.01 million containers and trailers, 2.2% above 2015’s previous record of 13.71 million units. Similarly, truck tonnage grew 7.2% and is also at a record high.…

The Fed enters 2018 with no clear plan for raising rates. At the last Fed meeting in December, 6 officials expected two rate hikes or less in 2018, 6 expected three hikes and 4 expected four or more rate increases.…

The prime-age population, those persons 25 through 54, number 125 million, of which 100 million are in the labor force. They comprise 63% of the labor force. Since 2000, about 17 million net new jobs have been created. And, all…

The Friday File: 1/3/18 was the last time a US passenger airline flew the iconic Boeing 747. It first flew on 2/9/69, and though designed for up to 660, the Israelis modified it to carry 1,087, service must have been…

In another sign the labor market is tightening, average overtime in October and November was 4.5 hours/week, tops since mid-2014; up substantially from 4.2 during the first five months of 2017. Back in 2014, OT was elevated out of a…