No Jobs, Weak Productivity

Jobs, where are they? The Labor Dept. employment tally came in at 54K well off the 232K in April and 194K in March. While our economy may be entering another “soft patch” the thing is you don’t get 2 of them in the first 2 years of a normal economic recovery! The silver lining, labor…

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Economy is Not Fun

The Institute of Supply Management’s Manufacturing Activity Index fell to 53.5 in May from 60.4. This shows the pace of manufacturing activity moderating since the index reached a 7 year high of 61.2 in March. Add to it a decline in Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index from 66 in April to a 6 month low…

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Education Revolution

The cost of education is so high, student achievement so dismal and technology and computerized pedagogy sufficiently developed and ubiquitous that the long awaited education revolution is about to begin. If ed moves to an online teaching model students could learn on exercises and evaluations created by the best educators in the world; results would…

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Food is Expensive

In poor countries people spend much more on food than we do. In the Philippines 47% of income is spent on food. The amount is 45% in India, 40% in Vietnam, 36% in Indonesia, 33% in Thailand, 30% in China, 22% in Singapore, 14% in S. Korea. Here it’s just 8%. Because it’s so high…

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Economics of the Indy 500

The Indy 500 is more than a huge financial Memorial Day event. Via trickledown technology it has vastly improved our lives. Turbochargers were 1st used in ’52, rearview mirrors in ’11 and seatbelts after WWII. Wide low-profile tires now used were also perfected there. When Indy cars were 1st outfitted with crash test recorders in…

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Icelandic Luck

The gov’t of Iceland wasn’t smart. It just couldn’t afford to bail out its banks, so they failed and foreign creditors including the UK and the Netherlands got badly burned, to the tune of $6 billion. While Iceland has suffered, their economic performance has been fabulous compared to Greece, Ireland or Portugal. The lesson, bailing…

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Weak Growth, Low Rates

The output gap, the difference between what GDP is and what it could be, at 5.2% has never been this large this late in an economic recovery. Usually the gap has completely disappeared by the 2nd anniversary of the expansion which is why interest rates usually rise at that point. And, this is precisely why…

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Democracy and Perishability

Trade predates agriculture. The advent of ag sped up the trend towards specialization in temperate zones, but not in the tropics. Why, perishability. If you can store what you make (cereals) you trade it. And trade leads to cities, stable gov’t, and a tilt towards democracy. But tropical produce (bananas) was traditionally hard to store…

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Bogus Budget Cut

Remember the $39 billion spending cut pushed by Republicans in April that averted a gov’t shutdown? It was all smoke and mirrors! Instead of cutting outlays the CBO now figures it will actually increase spending by $3.2 billion. The cuts were mostly phony like cancelling budget authorization for programs that weren’t actually going to get…

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Aggregate Demand MIA

Major averages have hit post-recovery highs aided and abetted by fattening margins provide by massive excess labor and the decline in unit labor costs that go along with that as well as the torque from a vibrant overseas economy and the currency translation effects of the ever weakening dollar. But, it really has nothing to…

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