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Last week, NAR reported home prices rose by a stunning 23.6% Y-o-Y. Indexes that compare the change in price of the same home, which is how the CPI measures consumer inflation, and which carefully control for the mix of homes…

Real consumer spending in May fell 0.4% M-o-M. Real durable goods spending declined 4.3%, while real spending on non-durables eased 0.5%. Conversely, real spending on services, which is 60% of overall spending, rose 0.4%. Households with incomes greater than $200,000…

The Friday File: The 500 millionth Swiss Army Knife rolled off the Swiss assembly line in 2017, the first ones were assembled in the 1880s. 45,000 are made/day, and the Work Champ XL offers the most functions, 29, and sells…

The number of births in the US fell to 3.61 million, the lowest level since 1979 and down 4% from 2019. The fertility rate, or the average number of babies/woman over her lifetime, fell to 1.64, the lowest ever. Births…

Last spring, inflation, or deflation, as measured by the CPI was falling at -4%/quarter and producer prices were declining at a rate of -8%/year, yet no lasting deflationary pressures appeared. The same holds true now for inflation. Come fall, schools…

Many commentators suggest that since the Roaring 1920s followed the Spanish Influenza pandemic of 1918, the Roaring 2020s will follow Covid-19. Wrong! Back then the median age in the US was 28, today it’s 38. Then, debt-to-GDP was 10%, now…

In a sign of how strong demand is and weak supply is, the retail inventories-to-sales ratio is an astonishingly low 1.07, its lowest level since record-keeping began in 1/92. It’s also much lower than the previous low of 1.34 set…

The Friday File: When the moon is full and passes closest to Earth, it’s called a supermoon. The technical term is perigee syzygy. On 5/25/21, perigee (when the moon is closest to Earth) was at 9:50pm EDT; the moon was…

In normal recessions, durable goods get hit, then reverse and lead the recovery. It’s because this sector is $2 trillion, 10% of GDP, pays well, has large multipliers, and you can make up for many delayed big-ticket purchases. This recovery…

The Fed is currently beginning a long road to monetary policy normalization. The Fed will first talk of tapering, and in early 2022 begin tapering its purchases of Treasuries and MBS. Next, in mid-2022 talk of raising rates will commence,…