Growing GDP

Having now seen the 21Q2 GDP data and June household income and spending data, my initial estimate (please don’t call it a guess) of 21Q3 GDP is 6.5%. It could go as high as 9% or as low as 4%. My baseline assumptions: household consumption’s contribution to quarterly GDP growth softens from the very strong 7.9% boost in 21Q2, but inventories rise from their -1.1% subtraction from GDP in 21Q2.