70 Words
Be Like Us
The core euro problem is the dramatic differences in economic performance of the 17 member countries. Germany’s a star, the PIIGS aren’t. By sharing the euro devaluation is not possible. Moreover, the Germans won’t tolerate inflation, and labor mobility is low. The ideal solution; have richer countries perpetually support the poorer countries. It’s what we…
Read MoreSupersized Stupidity
While capping the size of sugary beverages sold at NYC theaters, restaurants and sports facilities is noble, it’s so easily bypassed, “I’ll have three 16-oz sodas and three straws” it’s worthless. Since peaking in ’98, consumption of carbonated sugary drinks has fallen by 20%. Simply put people who want small Cokes, order ‘em. The rest…
Read MoreBig Mac Attack
The Friday File: The Economist, using only the price of a Big Mac, created “the Big Mac Index” to measure the costs of living in each country. Knowing this, Argentina’s Prime Minister pushed McDonalds to keep the price of Big Macs artificially low to make it look like prices are stable when there is serious…
Read MoreJobs Make the President
If current economic conditions persist, Obama will win with 50.2% of the vote according to a widely followed economic forecasting model. The key will be job growth numbers from now through August. Midyear growth was strong in ’72, ’84, 96 and ’04 and incumbents won. But was weak in ’76, ’80 and ’92 and incumbents…
Read MoreInsane Spain
The Spanish banking system is crumbling. While 10-year Treasuries yield 1.62%, Spain’s 10—year bonds yield 6.61%, near the all-time of 6.78% set 11/25/11. If yields stay this high, Spain will need a bail-out. Problem is, as the world’s 13th largest economy, with a $1.4 trillion GDP, it’s too big to bail out. Yet, things will…
Read MoreHooked on Stimulus
On 6/30/12 the weak economic recovery we’re experiencing will be three years old. Yet, absent microscopic interest rates and huge budget deficits there would be no recovery. Simply put, we’re hooked on cheap money and big spending and aren’t yet in a self sustaining recovery (SSR). Worse, the average post WWII recovery lasts 48 months.…
Read MorePenniless Canadians
The Friday File: Earlier this month Canada minted its last penny. The move will save taxpayers $11 million/year and financial institutions about $20 million/year in transportation and storage costs. In parliamentary hearings, no one opposed the idea. Canada follows Australia, Denmark, Finland, France, Israel, the Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Spain, South Africa, Sweden and Switzerland…
Read MoreKnown Unknowns
If Greece leaves the Euro, the collateral damage to the rest of the Eurozone will result in a drop in US exports to Europe, damage to European banks resulting in reduced lending, and possibly bank runs in Spain and Italy. But what’s really scary, is the totally unanticipated consequences! When Lehman went under, it was…
Read MoreDown is Up
The cost of down is up from $12/lb in ’09 to almost $30/lb today, while duck down has risen from $10/lb to $19/lb over the same period. Diet and urbanization are primarily why. As the Chinese become wealthier city-dwellers, fewer and fewer of them are raising ducks for food. Exacerbating this trend, worldwide demand for…
Read MoreBillions Blown
The $2 billion blunder by J.P. Morgan, while not pretty, is no clarion call for added regulation. Rather, it shows that with enough capital mistakes of this magnitude can be easily absorbed. That is, while regulations can be skirted, and rendered obsolete due to new financial instruments and top notch lawyers, there is nothing that…
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