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While housing starts in January fell 15% M-o-M and almost 1% Y-o-Y, that misses the point entirely. Single-family starts slid 4.7% M-o-M but are up 22% Y-o-Y. By contrast, multifamily fell 36% M-o-M and 38% Y-o-Y. Similarly, single-family permits rose…

The best current economic trend is rising labor productivity. After sinking from 22Q2-24Q2, it recently posted the best two quarters since mid-2010! Part of me is skeptical as job growth has recently been in education, leisure & hospitality, and healthcare,…

The Friday File: Super Bowl LVIII was watched by 123.4 million viewers, the highest number of viewers of the same broadcast in US history. That number is the average number that were tuned in at any given moment. The number…

For the first time in two years, CEO sentiment has turned positive. Moreover, it is up from levels always previously associated with recessions. Great news. Unfortunately, the percentage of firms in consumer-facing sectors mentioning weak demand is at the third…

Financial markets are worthless in predicting future events. To wit, in mid-January Wall Street was predicting that the Fed would cut the Fed funds rate by a total of 170bps in 2024, almost seven quarter-point cuts, even though the Fed…

Through the first four months of FY24 (October-January) the budget deficit reached $532 billion, up 16% or $73 billion compared to a deficit of $459 billion during the same period in FY2023. While seemingly expansionary, the increase was more than…

In 23Q4, consumer debt rose $212 billion. Mortgage balances increased $112 billion, HELOCs rose $11 billion, credit card balances added $50 billion, auto loans were up $12 billion, and other balances such as retail cards and consumer loans increased $25…

The Friday File: Since the start of CY2019, the KC Chiefs have played 20 games when the moon is a waxing crescent, a growing toenail sliver. And of those 20 games they have won 19. By contrast the 49ers are…

While there are many newer FICO versions, for home mortgages, FICO Score 5 is based on Equifax data, FICO Score 4 is based on TransUnion data, and FICO Score 2 is based on Experian data. Your mortgage FICO score is…

In 1980, the number of households with pay-TV subscriptions including cable, satellite, and telecom firms totaled 20 million. By 1989 it was 50 million, in 2000 it surpassed 75 million, and the peak was 100 million between 2009-2014. Since then,…