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One reason the US economy has performed as well as it has despite rising rates and bank lending reluctance is the rise of private debt and equity. In 2008, banks and fund managers each had $12 trillion in assets. Today,…

March existing home sales slipped 4.3% M-o-M to a seasonally adjusted rate of 4.19 million, the biggest M-o-M decline since 11/22. The February rise in mortgage rates undoubtedly hurt. Y-o-Y sales eased 3.7% to 4.35 million. March is now the…

The Friday File: The first American roller coaster was a stretch of repurposed coal mine railroad track in Pennsylvania’s Lehigh Valley in 1873. The chuch-chuch sound comes from the 1910 invention of the safety ratchet that prevents coasters from rolling…

In an early April survey of business and academic economists, the percentage predicting a recession within the next two years declined from 39% three months ago to 29%. This is the lowest percentage since 4/22 when recession chances were pegged…

Pre-Covid, quarterly Treasury bond issuance, including new and mostly refinanced maturing debt, was $3 trillion/quarter. Since then, the deficit has jumped, and Treasury has increasingly relied on short-term debt to finance the government. Thus, quarterly Treasury issuance in 24Q1 was…

March retail sales rose a strong 0.7% M-o-M, February sales were revised up by 0.3% M-o-M, and Y-o-Y sales rose a respectable 4%. However, inflation-adjusted, retail sales have been flat since 3/21, as we shift away from goods to services.…

In 1862, President Abraham Lincoln signed a revenue-raising measure to help pay for the costs associated with the Civil War. The measure created a Commissioner of Internal Revenue and the nation’s first income tax. The tax was 3% for income…

The Friday file: The world’s thinnest watch is, for the 9th time, a Bulgari, this time the Bulgari Octo Finissimo Ultra, at 1.7 millimeters (0.0669 inches). This breaks the previous 7/22 record of 1.75mm set by the RM UP-01 Ferrari,…

March CPI rose 3.5% Y-o-Y. This is unfortunately the 10th month in a row that headline CPI has been trendless and rangebound between 3.1% and 3.7%. The lowest reading since the 2021 inflationary rise was 3.1% back in 6/23. Moreover,…

In 1989, the Fed’s last rate hike was in 6/89 and 13 months later a recession began. In 2000, the lag between the Fed’s last hike and the recession was 10 months. In 2006, the lag was 18 months. And…