The Bowtie Economist's Daily Dose of 70-Word Wisdom

In early 2021 the Fed said inflation was transitory. That turned out to be true only if transitory is defined as two years, a bit long. Similarly, the Fed told us they expected the Fed funds rate to be 0.625%…

Unsurprisingly, the Fed left Fed funds unchanged but signaled a willingness to possibly raise it 25bps in the future, a hawkish pause. However, it doesn’t matter if the Fed raises rates once more, or not. It stretches credulity to think…

From 2/17 through 2/22, the percentage of pending home sales that fell out of contract declined from 13% to 11%, except for 3/20 and 4/20 when it exceeded 16%. From 3/22 through 9/22, as rates quickly rose, the failure rate…

Prior to the start of the September UAW strike, there were eight work stoppages involving more than a thousand people, the largest of which is the Screen Actors Guild strike involving 160,000 workers. Three of the eight stoppages began in…

The Friday File: Smucker’s Uncrustables, the lunchbox treats first produced in 1995, were introduced to stores in 2000. Sales are expected to hit $800 million in FY2024. Currently, four million of the sandwiches are produced each day in Denver, CO…

August CPI rose a sharp 0.6% M-o-M, largely attributable to costlier gasoline. Core inflation rose 0.3% M-o-M, its highest reading since May, but just 4.3% Y-o-Y, its lowest reading since 9/21 and its 10th decline in 11 months. However, core…

The resumption of student loan payments on 10/1/23 is likely to knock 0.25 percentage points off quarterly annualized GDP. A government closure will knock 0.2 percentage points per week off quarterly annualized GDP, and a UAW strike against all three…

Pricey Payments High rates have pushed up the average interest and principal payment for new borrowers using a 30-year mortgage to $2,306. Similarly, two years ago 5% of new borrowers had a payment over $3,000/month, today it’s almost 25%. Moreover,…

While gasoline prices have increased somewhat since May as the price of WTI crude has risen by 13%, diesel prices are up over 40% over the same period. It’s because in May Saudi Arabia, Russia, and others in OPEC+ surprised…

The Friday File: During 1H23, AMC Theaters grossed $2.3 billion. Ticket sales generated $1.3 billion, other categories including advertising, auditorium rental, arcade games, etc. generated $200 million, and food and beverage spawned $817 million. Amazingly, food and beverage costs were…