The Bowtie Economist's Daily Dose of 70-Word Wisdom

The IMF expects 2024/25 global growth to be 3.2%, down from 3.3% in 2023, and well down from the 3.8%/year it averaged between 2000-2019. It sees U.S. growth at 2.8% this year, and in 2025, it forecasts U.S. growth of…

Since the Fed cut rates by 50bps on 9/18/24, the 10-year Treasury has steadily risen from 3.68% to the current 4.23%. This is because investors think the rate cut is better for stocks than bonds because there is now increasing…

Increasing personal income tax rates across-the-board by 10% without any income exemptions would raise $221 billion/year in new revenue. With a $100,000/year exemption, this policy would raise $166 billion/year. With a $250,000/year threshold, revenue growth is $90 billion/year, and at…

From 1973-1983, U.S. oil & gas extraction employment doubled from 130,000 to 260,000. In the ensuing bust, employment sank to 120,000 in 2004. During the shale boom, employment largely recovered and peaked at 200,000 2014/15. It’s since steadily declined, bottomed…

The Friday File: Through the first five weeks of the NFL season, place kicker accuracy has never been better at 86%, and 98% from 39 yards or less. But the real story is kicks of 50+ yards. Kickers are currently…

While inflation is barely 2.5% Y-o-Y, unemployment is just 4.1%, and incomes are rising, voters are sour on the economy. Here, I think, is why. Median income in 2023 rose to $80,610, but it’s still below the 2019 $81,210 inflation-adjusted…

The latest NY Fed Survey of Consumer Finances is slightly worrying as it reports the percentage of households who think they will be unable to meet their debt obligations over the next three months is 14%. This is the highest…

Estimate are that $15.9 billion, a new nominal record, will be spent this election cycle. This total includes congressional races, outside money from super-PACs, and money spent by the two presidential campaigns. In real terms, the $15 billion spent during…

The 2024 economics Nobel prize was awarded to Daron Acemoglu/Simon Johnson of MIT and James Robinson of the University of Chicago. They won it for a seminal 2001 paper, showing how economic growth is profoundly dependent on political institutions. They…

The Friday File: The costliest place to watch a hockey game is Toronto, where they haven’t won a Cup since 1967. There it costs a family of four, for tickets, drinks, hot dogs, parking, etc., a staggering US$704, followed by…