The Bowtie Economist's Daily Dose of 70-Word Wisdom
Crude Concerns
Because the US still imports 5 million barrels/day of oil, and consumers spend a substantial share of income on energy, cheaper oil boosts GDP. Every $10/bbl decline shaves 25 cents off the price/gallon of gas and reduces oil imports by…
Read MoreBerlin Barrier
The Friday File: Monday marks the 25th anniversary of the fall of the “Anti-Fascist Protection Rampart” aka the Berlin Wall. The Wall was 96 miles long, and before the border was sealed on 8/13/1961, only after a Berlin railway bypass…
Read MoreStatus Quo Shelter
With Republicans running Capitol Hill, there is renewed hope that bills dealing with corporate taxes, trade and maybe even immigration become law this session. There is also hope that some small parts of Dodd-Frank and the Affordable Care Act get…
Read MoreCostly Contests
The 2014 mid-term elections were the costliest mid-terms ever with total spending hitting $3.67 billion or $44/voter! The most expensive race was the NC senate race at $113 million, followed by the CO senate race at $97 million, the IA…
Read MoreMore Money
GDP grew by a healthy 3.5% in Q3, but better yet the employment-cost index, a broad measure of wages and benefits, rose by 0.7% in Q2 and in Q3 its best performance since 2008. Wages and salaries rose by over…
Read MoreCrummy Confidence
The Commerce Department reported that September new home sales increased 0.2% from August. The problem is the report has a reported margin of error of +/- 15.7%. September sales could have been up as much as 15.9% or down by…
Read MoreHappy Halloween
The Friday File: Halloween is the 4th biggest annual retail event, with total spending expected to total $7.4 billion (more than the GDP of Barbados), behind Christmas at $620 billion, back to school/college at $73 billion and Mother’s Day at…
Read MoreGreat Gasoline
Oil’s price decline is due to relentless increases in supply and slightly declining demand due to weakening global growth. It’s also because Saudi Arabia hasn’t cut production. That’s because the Saudi’s are squeezing their enemies, Iran, Iraq and Russia which…
Read MoreBorderline Banks
The ECB’s stress test of the largest Eurozone banks found that 25 of 150 failed. Hardly inspiring. Moreover, there’s no indication any of these banks will soon boost lending. That said, if these results raise confidence enough to begin to…
Read MorePredictable Policy
Tomorrow the Fed will announce that tapering has ended, closing the books on QE3 which began in late 2012. Therefore, the carefully scrutinized policy statement they release will change. However, it will still include the phrase “…maintain the current target…
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