Econ70

Reservations About The Dollar

03/01/2014

Since the start of the Great Recession of 2008 and the Fed’s decision to inject trillions of dollars into the banking system, there has been constant talk of the US dollar losing its position as the world’s reserve currency, the…

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Box Office Oscar

02/28/2014

The Friday File: Academy Awards boost ticket sales two ways; the “nomination effect” and the “winner effect”. While Ocsar winners sell more tickets than movies that are only nominated, most of the difference occurs before the awards ceremonies. Thus ticket…

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Payrolls & Exports

02/27/2014

In 2011, monthly payroll growth averaged 174,000 in 2012 it averaged 186,000 and 194,000 last year. This year I expect employment to be at least as strong as in 2013. Moreover, I’m only mildly concerned about weakness in emerging markets…

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Income Inequality

02/26/2014

To understand why income and wealth are becoming increasingly unequal in America, look no further than Facebook’s purchase of WhatsApp for $19 billion! That’s 40% more than the value of the median firm in the S%P 500. If shared equally…

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Housing Hurting

02/25/2014

Recent housing data has been weak. It’s because the weather has been harsh, there’s a lack of developable lots and skilled workers, limited inventory, reduced investor buying, higher mortgage rates, fewer low-priced distressed sales and higher house prices. Despite these…

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Declining Dollars

02/24/2014

While raising the minimum wage to $10.10 from the current $7.25 is estimated to eliminate 500,000 jobs and raise 900,000 workers out of poverty, that’s not the end of the story. Those numbers will steadily decline as inflation eats away…

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Olympic Outcome

02/21/2014

With the Olympics almost over, among winter powerhouse countries the one that most positively surprised was Netherlands with 22 medals, double what was expected. Conversely, Austria, Germany, Norway and South Korea all won about 40% fewer medals than expected. Most…

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Delicate China

02/20/2014

Should China suffer a hard economic landing, trade with its neighbors would fall along with commodity prices, hurting Australia, Brazil, Mongolia, South Korea, Japan, and Vietnam. Singapore and Hong Kong would also suffer due to relatively large financial links with…

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Delightful Debt

02/19/2014

After steadily declining for 19 straight quarters, total consumer debt increased in the past two quarters for the first time since 2008! Household debt grew by $130 billion in Q3 and by $241 billion in Q4. However, overall consumer debt…

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Poor Public Payrolls

02/18/2014

Non-farm private employment peaked at 115.5 million in 6/07 and is now 115.0 million, down half-a-percent and should hit a new high this May. By contrast, total public employment, which includes state, local and federal government employment, plateaued at 22.8…

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