Econ70

While the current economic expansion is the weakest ever, averaging just 2.1% GDP growth/year, the second weakest was the previous recovery which ended with the Great Recession. The third weakest, the recovery before that, which was the longest recovery ever;…

Two weeks ago the Fed met and, unsurprisingly, gave no indication that a rate rise was is the offing; inflation is too weak. Instead, the Fed strongly suggested they will commence reducing their holdings of long-dated debt following their meeting…

With 209,000 net new jobs in July and YTD average monthly employment gains averaging 184,000, just below the 187,000 in CY16, job growth is excellent. The employment-to-population ratio at 60.2% is at its best level since 2/09, and the unemployment…

The Friday File: Between 1973 and 2011, sperm concentration in males in North America, Europe, Australia, and New Zealand (where more and better data are available) declined by between 52% and 59%, depending on the method of measurement; don’t ask.…

Despite a roaring labor market, the credit cycle is turning. After peaking at 4.85% in 09Q2, consumer loan delinquency rates steadily declined to 2% and remained there from 15Q1 through 16Q1. Since then, they have steadily risen and are now…

After two straight record-breaking years of 17.5 million units in 2015 and 17.6 million units in 2016, car sales are retrenching. Prior to July, car sales had declined in four of the last five months, but improved to a seasonally…

In 2015, cash was used in 32% of all consumer transactions, followed closely by debit cards at 27%, credit cards at 21%, electronic payments at 11%, checks at 6% and other at 3%. Between 2012 and 2015, cash usage plummeted…

The Senate Republican failure to pass a “skinny” Obamacare replacement means a revenue loss of probably $150 billion over a decade. Having already nixed the border adjustment tax means the loss of an additional $1 trillion over a decade. Absent…

The Friday File: At last, engineers have figured out how shoelace bows come undone! There are two forces at work. The to-and-fro movement of the leg and the impact of the shoe hitting the ground. Turns out neither force is…