Econ70

Inflation-adjusted GDP in 17Q4 grew at a realistic annualized rate of 2.6% after growing at slightly over 3% in 17Q3 and 17Q2. In 2017, GDP grew by 2.3%. While not sizzling growth, it’s pretty good given that this recovery will,…

The Friday File: America is clearly aging. The most popular beer in the US in 2017 was Bud Light with a 15.4% market share, down sharply from 16.2% a year earlier. Number two was Coors Light with a 7.6% market…

On the plus side, existing home sales in 2017 hit 5.51 million, their highest level since 6.478 million in 2006. But, existing sales are up trivially from 5.45 million in 2016, and 5.25 million in 2015. Why? A complete lack…

2017 was the best year ever for US intermodal (shipping container) loads. Originations were 14.01 million containers and trailers, 2.2% above 2015’s previous record of 13.71 million units. Similarly, truck tonnage grew 7.2% and is also at a record high.…

The Fed enters 2018 with no clear plan for raising rates. At the last Fed meeting in December, 6 officials expected two rate hikes or less in 2018, 6 expected three hikes and 4 expected four or more rate increases.…

The prime-age population, those persons 25 through 54, number 125 million, of which 100 million are in the labor force. They comprise 63% of the labor force. Since 2000, about 17 million net new jobs have been created. And, all…

The Friday File: 1/3/18 was the last time a US passenger airline flew the iconic Boeing 747. It first flew on 2/9/69, and though designed for up to 660, the Israelis modified it to carry 1,087, service must have been…

In another sign the labor market is tightening, average overtime in October and November was 4.5 hours/week, tops since mid-2014; up substantially from 4.2 during the first five months of 2017. Back in 2014, OT was elevated out of a…

Oil prices have, somewhat surprisingly, more than doubled since 1/1/16. OPEC and Russia have cut supply by two million bbl/day, random outages and steadily declining Venezuelan production have helped, and geopolitical concerns (Iran) have pushed up prices. The biggest factor,…

Markets are currently pegging the odds of a government shutdown this Friday at midnight at 30%. If there is a shutdown, the average duration of the 11 that have occurred since 1977 is less than 4 days, and the cost…