Econ70

The Friday File: Based on the 12-year Chinese zodiac cycle, this year is the year of the dog. And, while that may not sound propitious, since 1950 the S&P has averaged a 15.3% return in these years, better than any…

Even with unemployment near 20-year lows, labor is weak. In 1952, work stoppages involving 1,000 workers or more totaled 470, the most ever. In 1959, the number of lost work days from such strikes peaked at 60.85 million. As recently…

While the US desperately needs better infrastructure, the current White House plan will not work. The proposal relies way too much on already financially pinched state and local governments. Moreover, rising interest rates make borrowing more costly, lower personal income…

January housing starts came in at a seasonally-adjusted annualized rate of 1.326 million, their second highest level since 8/07. Single-family starts are also at their second-best level since 2007, 10/07 to be precise. Overall, starts are up 7.3% compared to…

Since 1960, the president that ran the largest average deficit during his time in office was Obama, with an average of 5.7% of GDP, Reagan follows at 3.8%, George H.W. Bush at 3.7%, and Kennedy at 3.3%. By contrast, Clinton…

The Friday File: The amount of the greenhouse gas carbon-dioxide produced per kilogram (2.2 lbs) of boneless beef is 26.61 kilograms. Lamb follows at 25.58; both are ruminants. Each kilogram of pork embodies 5.77 kilograms, a kilogram of chicken, a…

Outstanding household debt rose $193 billion in 17Q4 to a record $13.15 trillion, 67% of GDP, down from 87% of GDP at the peak in 2009. The delinquent share of total debt is 3.12%, down from 3.19% in 17Q3. Mortgage…

The 54.7% of American romantics who plan to celebrate Valentine’s Day are expected to spend $19.6 billion this year, or $146/person, up from last year’s disappointing $18.2 billion, but below the all-time high of $19.7 in 2016. Total planned spending…

In 2017, the economies of the 45 largest democracies with market economies grew in unison. That was the first time this has occurred since the years 2004-2007. Looking back in history to 1979 and including the periods already mentioned, synchronized…

Average hourly earnings of private non-farm employees rose 2.9% Y-o-Y in January. This roiled markets; it was the largest gain since 5/09. But, the gain was exclusive to supervisory workers whose Y-o-Y gain was 3.9%! This fluke outcome occurred because…