Econ70

US Markets are jittery after suddenly realizing Europe and China have been slowing and that this will reduce US growth. That said, US 18Q4 growth should be a strong 3%, wage growth is at its best level in a decade,…

The Friday File: The percentage of voters whose surname starts with S is almost 10%, followed by M with 9.25%, B at 8.5%, C with 7.25%, and H at 6.75%. W and R follow with about 5.5% each. These seven…

The recently concluded G20 meetings include, by GDP ranking; the USA, China, Japan, Germany, UK, India, France, Brazil, Italy, Canada, South Korea, Russia, Australia, Mexico, Indonesia, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Argentina, South Africa, and oddly the EU, which isn’t a nation.…

During CY2017, France had the highest tax revenue as a percent of GDP among the 36 OECD (wealthy western democratic) nations at 46.2%. Denmark was just behind at just 46%, and in third was Sweden at 44%. The US was…

For the week ending 11/30/18, the US exported 3.2 million barrels/day of crude oil and 5.8 million barrels/day of gasoline, refined products. Those 9 million barrels/day of exports exceeded the 8.8 million barrels/day of imports, making the US a net…

With 155,000 net new November jobs, the labor market continues to perform well, but may be cooling. The unemployment rate held at 3.7% as folks continued joining the labor force, which is great, and wage growth was unchanged from October’s…

The Friday File: In 2018, US per capita egg consumption is expected to be 279. While some wind up in cakes, souffles and sauces, many are eaten by themselves. The preferred way: it’s a tie between scrambled and fried, both…

Oil prices aren’t spiking (which caused the 1973 and 1979 recessions), neither are interest rates (1981 and 1983 recessions). Better yet, banks aren’t failing, nor is consumer confidence tanking (collectively helping cause the 1990 recession), nor are equity prices and…

Yesterday, rates on two-year and three-year Treasuries rose above the rate on the five-year Treasury, which probably lead to substantial algorithmic trading. While this isn’t a full-fledged yield curve inversion (YCI), which refers to the yield on the two-year Treasury…

That Xi and Trump have agreed to a framework to guide trade talks and delay more tariffs is good. But the fundamental trade problems remain. With politically savvy hardliner US Trade Representative Lighthizer heading the US negotiating team, the talks…