Econ70

March housing starts eased to 1.139 million, the weakest data since 5/17, down 14.2% compared to 3/18, and down 9.7% YTD. Part of the apparent softness is because starts were particularly strong through 5/18. However, it is still somewhat surprising…

First time claims for unemployment benefits fell to 192,000 in the week ending 4/13, their lowest level since 9/69, while the less volatile four-week moving average fell to 201,250, the lowest level since 11/69. When unemployment claims hit their cyclical…

The Friday File: In 1995, 2% of couples met online, today it’s 39%. Meeting in bars went from 19% to 27%. Other methods have significantly declined. Meeting through friends has fallen from 33% to 20%, meeting through coworkers has dropped…

While hardly surprising, the IMF cut its forecast of 2019 global economic growth to 3.3% from 3.5% in January; 3.7% in October. A key reason; world trade, which had been growing at 5%/year for a long time, slowed to 3.8%…

In March, Chinese lending activity hit its highest level in a decade, the money supply is now growing at its fastest pace in a year, and exports have completely recovered from their dismal December. Thus, the stock market is up…

Based on 4/19 IMF data and growth projections, US GDP will end 2019 at $21.3 trillion, China will follow with GDP of $14.2 trillion, then Japan at $5.2 trillion and Germany at $4.0 trillion. The big news; India will leapfrog…

Based on an IRS study from 2016 which looked at tax years 2008-2010, the size of the tax gap, the amount of money owed the IRS but not paid, averaged $406 billion/year. That means 16% of taxes went unpaid; about…

The Friday File: This past Monday, Baltimore Oriole’s First baseman Chris Davis went 0-for-5, and in the process set a major league record of 49 straight at-bats without a hit. Wednesday night he made it 57 straight plate appearances without…

Going back to President Truman in the 1940s, President Trump’s approval rating has shifted less than any other sitting president. At its peak, Trump’s approval rating is 47%, at its trough it’s 38%. Obama’s approval rating was the next most…

For the first time ever, the profitability of the Saudi Aramco Oil Company was recently disclosed. In 2018, Aramco’s profit was a stunning $111 billion, easily dwarfing the world’s second most profitable firm Apple, which earned $59.4 billion. Apple is…