Archive for October 2023

The Scary File: Americans are expected to spend a record $12.2 billion celebrating Halloween, up from last year’s record $10.6 billion. In 2019 spending totaled $8.8 billion. This year a record 73% of people will celebrate Halloween up from 69% in 2022. Among children, Spiderman outfits are most in demand. Among adults, it’s witch outfits.…

A major reason the Fed isn’t expected to raise the Fed funds rate this Wednesday is because financial conditions have tightened substantially. After peaking at almost 102 during early 2020, conditions eased to 97 by late 2021. They then rose to 101 in late 2022, to ease to 99.3 in mid-2023. Since then, they’ve steadily…

The Friday File: The McDonalds McRib sandwich is deliberately made available only sporadically. During 2010-2017 it was only available on 19.3% of stock trading days. However, the average daily return on equities, as measured by the S&P 500, is boosted by 0.07%/day when the McRib is for sale. That works out to an annualized return…

The U.S. economy grew at a stunning 4.9% annualized rate in 23Q3, defying slowdown predictions and up from 2.1% in 23Q2. Consumer spending, inventory growth, net exports, government spending, and residential investment were all strong. But this cannot continue. Consumer spending will slow as consumers have been drawing down savings, ramping up credit card use…

High rates are finally broadening their negative impacts. Last week a major home builder index sank to its seventh lowest reading in over 11 years, home mortgage cancellation rates suddenly spiked to their third highest rate in at least seven years, the AIA’s Billing Index abruptly dropped to its lowest level outside of 2020 since…

According to a recent analysis, the average monthly new mortgage payment is currently 52% more than the average apartment rent. The last time this percentage was anywhere near where it is now was in 06Q2, not long before the Housing Bust, when it was 33.4%. The last time housing was less affordable than today was…

Chapter 11 bankruptcies among firms with assets exceeding $100 million have tripled in 23H1 compared to 22H1, and mega bankruptcies, meaning bankruptcies of firms with assets exceeding $1 billion such as Bed Bath & Beyond, and Yellow Corporation, reached 16 in 23H1, easily surpassing the comparable half-year average of 11 from 2005 through 2022. In…

The Friday File: During the decade ending 2019, 20,091,410 boys were born and 19,184,303 girls were born in the U.S. The most popular girl’s name was Emma with 194,917 girls receiving it, followed by Olivia at 184,432, and Sophia at 181,032. The most popular boy’s names were Noah at 183,172, Liam at 173,888 and Jacob…

The Architectural Billing Index slid to 44.8, the lowest reading since 12/20. The Index is a 9-to-12-month leading indicator of construction activity. Reduced billings were reported in all regions. Multifamily billings are the weakest, followed by commercial/industrial billings while institutional billings are flat. Moreover, there appears to be rising client hesitation to commit to new…

While September M-o-M retail sales jumped a more than expected 0.7% and August sales were revised up from 0.6% to 0.8%, there is less here than meets the eye. After inflation, August sales were up 0.16% M-o-M and September was up 0.32%. Y-o-Y real retail September sales rose 0.06%, the first positive reading since January’s…