Month: June 2022

CPI inflation is 8.5%. Market-based inflation expectations (MBIE) one year from now are 4.8%, MBIE over the five-year period starting a year from now are 2.32%, and MBIE over the five-year period starting in five years are just 2.26%. These…

Following the most recent 75bps rate hike by the Fed, the NY Fed’s economic model pegs the chances of a recession, or a hard-landing, defined as one quarter in which Y-o-Y GDP growth is negative between now and the end…

Bond yields have been particularly volatile of late as markets struggle to understand the simultaneous impacts of inflation, which is being driven by the Russian invasion of Ukraine, supply-chain issues and rising inflation expectations, which collectively push yields up, and…

While a recession is highly likely, it’s not guaranteed, and the odds of one rise the more the Fed must act on its own. That is, the White House and Congress can more deftly reduce inflation as the combination of…

The Friday File: Earlier this week, Dimitri Muratov, the editor-in-chief of Novaya Gazeta, a newspaper fiercely critical of President Putin and that suspended operations in March after state warnings, auctioned off his 2021 Nobel Peace Prize medal to aid displaced…

Reducing the federal gas and diesel taxes from 18.4 cents/gallon and 24.4 cents/gallon, respectively, to zero for three months, would cost the Treasury $10 billion, and probably not much help consumers. That’s because the slightly lower price would boost demand…

May existing housing sales fell 8.6% Y-o-Y, have declined four months in a row, and are at the lowest May level since 2015 (except for 5/20). Inventories, while profoundly low, are edging up, and due to declining sales, months of…

The US airline with the highest costs excluding fuel is American; 12 cents/seat mile. In close second is Delta at about 11.5, and then United at 11. All are large legacy carriers with big networks, focused on high paying business…

The Friday File: Fifty years ago today, three DC police officers caught five burglars breaking into the Democratic National Campaign Committee in the iconic Watergate Building in Washington. Economically, from 1/1/73 through Richard Milhouse Nixon’s resignation on 8/8/74, the S&P…

Since the start of the Great Depression, there have been 22 bear markets, defined as a stock market decline of more than 20%. The average duration of those bear markets is 11 months. The median duration is eight months. The…