Archive for May 2022

The Fed’s recently released annual Economic Well-Being of US Households 2021 report shows US households in better shape than at any time since the Survey commenced in 2013. 78% of households reported living comfortably, up from 75% in 2020, the highest percentage ever. Moreover, 68% of adults said they could cover a $400 emergency using…

The Friday File: Last week, at auction, a 1955 Mercedes-Benz 300 SLR Uhlenhaut Coupe sold for $142 million. This price nearly triples the previous auto auction record of $48.4 million, set in 2018, for a 1962 Ferrari GTO. Yes, the Coupe was one of two prototypes ever made, and it has gull-wing doors, but all…

US CO2 emissions rose steadily from a recession trough of 4.4 billion metric tons in 1983 to 6.0 Bmt in 2007. Since, they have steadily fallen, bottoming in 2020, due to Covid-19, at 4.6 Bmt, the same level as 1984. In 2021, as the economy recovered, emissions rose to 4.9 Bmt. Ignoring 2020, 4.9 Bmt…

April new home sales dropped 7% M-o-M, and 27% Y-o-Y to an annual rate of just 591,000, the lowest level since 4/20, the worst of the pandemic. Moreover, for sale new home inventory has skyrocketed from 4.7 months in 4/21 to 9.0! No wonder builder sentiment is crumbling. Interestingly, the gap between the average and…

Canadian mortgage rates have risen from 1.5% last fall to 4% now, a 12-year high. This has resulted in April home sales dropping 27% M-o-M and 41.2% Y-o-Y in Toronto. While prices are up 15% Y-o-Y, they are down from March’s Y-o-Y rise of 18.5% and February’s 27% Y-o-Y rise. In Vancouver the story is…

In March and April, the CPI was above 8% Y-o-Y. Since 1950, this has only occurred in 1951, 1974, and 1979-1981. Inflation this bad is rare. Fortunately, it will probably decline to 4%/year by mid-2023 as supply problems ebb and energy prices plateau. The problem, if wage inflation remains stuck at 6% and productivity growth…

The Friday File: A recent peer-reviewed study in BMC Psychology suggests “a direct association between celebrity worship and poorer performance on cognitive tests.” Persons more interested in the lives of their favorite celebrities generally performed less well on cognitive ability tests administered. That said, it is unclear if celebrity worship is a cause or a…

Rates are up significantly since 1/1/22 because the Fed has made clear it will raise rates substantially over the next 6-12 months. Another reason is because the Fed will be substantially reducing the amount of bonds and mortgage-backed securities it holds. While we know reasonably well how rate hikes impact the economy, amazingly, economists really…

While the NAHB Housing Market Index of builder sentiment is at 69, which is not bad, it’s fallen from a peak of 90 in 11/20. Since 1985, and the start of the index, three of the four times it’s declined 20 points or more, regardless of the initial value of the index, a recession has…

In 2021, fiscal policy added four percentage points to GDP, in 2022 it will subtract three, a seven-percentage point swing, something not seen since at least 1960. Moreover, the dollar is at its strongest level in decades, further reducing inflation. Add peaking new car prices, falling used ones, rising factory utilization rates and inventories, and…