Archive for April 2022

The Friday File: Based on the number of album units sold (AUS), with an album equaling 1,250 streams on a paid subscription platform or 3,750 streams on an ad-supported platform, the Beatles are tops with 183 million AUS. Garth Brooks at 157 million is next; then Elvis Pressley at 145.5 million. The Eagles are at…

While 22Q1 GDP shrank at an annualized rate of 1.4%, it fell because inventories shrank and imports skyrocketed, meaning torrid domestic consumption was met via inventory drawdowns and imports. Federal, state, and local government spending also shrank. That said, private demand grew by a sizzling 3.7%, well above the growth potential of the economy. The…

The Russian invasion of Ukraine will shrink Ukrainian 2022 GDP by 35% from $200 billion to $130 billion. Russia’s will fall by 8.5% from $1.8 trillion to $1.65 trillion. Combined, that’s $220 billion. 2022 global GDP of $95 trillion is expected to grow by 0.9% less due to the war, a loss of $855 billion…

Housing activity is beginning to show the impact of rising rates. March sales activity, which is based on contracts signed in January and February when 30-year mortgage rates were rising from 3.29% to 3.9% fell for the second straight month and didn’t look worse only because February sales were revised way down. Moreover, first-time mortgage…

Historically, NATO and Russia shared a border of 196km, where Norway and Russia meet. When Poland ascended in 1999, the border grew to 428km. In 2004, when Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania joined after asking to be admitted like all nations, the border measured 1,233km. Should Finland request admittance, which is very likely, the new NATO/Russia…

The Friday File: Today, Guy LaFleur died. He was the first hockey player to score 50 goals and 100 points in six straight seasons, won five Stanley Cups with my Montreal Canadiens, is in the Hall of Fame, and was sublime to watch. He was the greatest player of the 1970s and was my childhood…

In March 2021, the median house price was $326,350 and the interest rate on a 30-yr mortgage was 3.10%. Assuming 20% down, the monthly payment, excluding taxes and property insurance, was $1,115/month. Today, the same house costs $375,300, or 15% more, and the interest on the same 30-yr mortgage is 5.00%, 61.3% more. As a…

Chinese exports are softening, real estate is sinking, the stock market is tanking, the Central Bank is easing policy, and 45 cities with 373 million persons, representing 40% of GDP, are living under full or partial lockdown, up from 23 cities and 193 million people a week ago. Consumer spending is declining and the regime…

While most office buildings have not experienced large increases in vacancies due to the long-term nature of leases, this year leases for 243 million square feet come due, 11% of all US office space; the most ever in a year. The current vacancy rate is a post-pandemic high of 12.2%, up from 9.6% in 2019.…

With the 10-year Treasury at 2.8%, based on historical relationships, a 30-year conventional mortgage should have a rate of 4.5%, however, it’s now over 5%! I suspect that this is because investors expect the Fed to keep raising rates. Given that the Fed might raise the Fed funds rate as high as 3.25% and maybe…