Month: August 2021

Inflation, as calculated by the Fed’s favorite measure Core-PCE, was 3.54% Y-o-Y in June, up just marginally from 3.44% in May, suggesting that Peak Inflation is probably here. A key reason inflation isn’t worse, unlike other recessions there’s little pent-up…

Having now seen the 21Q2 GDP data and June household income and spending data, my initial estimate (please don’t call it a guess) of 21Q3 GDP is 6.5%. It could go as high as 9% or as low as 4%.…