Archive for September 2018

The Friday File: According to the National UFO Reporting Center, in 1990 there were 315 global UFO sightings. Sightings then steadily rose, reaching 2,000 in 1998, over 4,000 in 2003, and peaked at 8,670 in 2014. Sightings have since plummeted. In 2017 they totaled 5,000, and this year are on a pace to hit 2,600.…

With the economy enjoying low inflation, very low unemployment, good growth, and sky-high consumer confidence, the Fed’s plan to hike rates at three-month intervals through 2019 is easy. It made no waves because the economy has had no adverse reactions to the rates rises thus far. Should the economy stumble, the Fed will minimally pause…

Last year, when Hurricane Harvey barreled into Houston it destroyed $125 billion of property but reduced GDP by just $8.5 billion. Even Katrina, which did $161 billion of damage, reduced economic output by just $31 billion, and overall GDP was a strong 3.6% that quarter. These events aren’t big enough to hit a $20 trillion…

The most recent CEO survey of America’s largest corporations paints a strong, but slightly deteriorating, economic picture. At 109.3, the survey is at its fifth highest level in its 16-year history, but down from 111.1 in 18Q2. 55% of CEOs plan to boost capital spending, down from 61% last quarter; 56% plan to increase hiring,…

With existing home sales flat in July, and August at a rate of 5.4 million/year (solidly down from a peak rate of 5.7 million/year last November), I think existing sales move sideways from here on. Rising prices, higher interest rates, and tight inventories make a meaningful rise unlikely despite a strong labor market and rising…

The Friday File: Last month, Venezuela’s hyperinflation rate was a staggering 223.1%, and according to IMF forecasts, it could reach 1 million percent for the full year. If Venezuela’s inflation gets no worse, it would be just the 23rd worst case of hyperinflation; what a relief. The worst case: postwar Hungary, where inflation was 41,900,000,000,000,000%.…

For the week ending 9/15/18, initial unemployment claims fell to 204,000, their lowest level since 11/15/69, yes, 1969! The four-week moving average declined to 205,750, its lowest level since 12/6/69. Moreover, claims have been below 300,000 since 3/7/15, the longest period since record keeping began on 1/1/67. Lastly, there has been continuous net job growth…

After peaking in 2014 at 78.9 years, US life expectancy has declined for two years running, falling to 78.7 in 2015 and 78.6 in 2016. This is the first time life expectancy has declined two years in a row since 1962 and 1963, when a very bad flu was to blame. The culprit now is…

While the Trump administration inexplicably works overtime to stop the vertical AT&T/Time Warner merger, the bigger question is will the DOJ fight the more troubling horizontal T-Mobile/Sprint merger? The firms argue, with some supporting data, that the merger will indeed boost investment. But, data also suggest the merger will raise prices meaningfully by reducing competition.…

Inflation-adjusted median household income rose to $61,372 in 2017, up 1.8% from 2016, and up smartly from the 2012 cyclical trough of $54,569. Despite the recent rise, median income is not meaningfully higher than the 1999 pre-recession peak of $60,062. In 2017, income rose more due to a rise in hours worked than rising wages.…