Archive for September 2017

The Friday File: After hitting a cyclical high of 122 in 2007, the number of half-million dollar and up yearling sales at Keeneland tumbled to a low of 28 in 2010 amid the panic of the Great Recession. Sales volume has since steadily risen and just hit 119, a decade high. Better yet, 2,555 horses…

While labor productivity growth is very weak, we can improve it. Broadly speaking, government policies work best when they address needs that the private sector ignores. These include basic research, infrastructure, early childhood education, schooling, public health and so on. While we may politically disagree about how best to proceed, if we are as a…

The standard deduction in 2017, if married is $12,700; $6,350 if single. Trump proposes doubling it. This will eliminate itemizing for married households with deductions between $12,701 and $25,400. Based on 2015 data, the average itemizing household with AGI of between $50,000 and $100,000 has $22,872 in deductions, including $7,007 in mortgage interest. These households…

The average cost of an employer-offered family health insurance plan in 2017 was an eyewatering $18,764, up 3% from 2016. Employees paid an average of $5,714 or 31% of the premium. For an individual worker, coverage cost $6,690, a 4% rise over 2016 with the employee paying 18% or $1,204. Premium growth has slowed as…

Because single-family construction activity is rising much too slowly while multifamily activity shrinks, housing inventory has declined Y-o-Y for 27 straight months, prices keep rising faster than wages, and affordability is at its lowest level since early 2009. As a result, housing sales have been flat for the past 12 months at an annual rate…

The Friday File: The movie that destroyed the most cars is Transformers 3 at 532 vehicles, next is Matrix Reloaded at 300. In third, Fast & Furious 5 which wrecked 260, followed by Junkman with 150 vehicles. Fifth is A Good Day To Die Hard with 132 wrecks. G.I. Joe is sixth at 112, while…

With the competition to lure Amazon’s second headquarters in full swing, I think the competition really boils down to just Austin, Atlanta, Dallas, and Nashville. All are relatively inexpensive, have good airports and universities, are large enough for Amazon not to drastically alter the existing labor market, and are physically far from Seattle, giving Amazon…

As the Fed reduces its huge balance sheet over the next several years, what will its eventual holdings consist of? Traditionally, it’s only been Treasuries. Now, holdings include $1.8 trillion in mortgage-backed securities, bought to support housing, and $2.5 trillion in Treasuries. As the Fed sells both, rates will rise, but importantly the spread between…

While over a year away, based only on presidential popularity, if the 11/18 mid-term elections were held now, the Republicans would be expected to lose 40 House seats, giving control of the chamber to the Democrats. This result is based on all mid-term elections since 1950. Other mid-term elections featuring a president with similar levels…

Headline inflation as measured by the CPI is 1.94%, and, after falling for some months, is again rising, partly on the back of rising rent inflation. The core rate, which excludes food and energy, and is a better measure of underlying inflation, is 1.68% and still falling. Why? Cheaper cell phone plans, a continuing decline…