Archive for April 2015

Although Q1 GDP rose just 0.2%, the labor market continues to improve. First-time claims for unemployment were just 262,000 last week, the lowest level since 4/00, while the less volatile four-week moving average is at a level last seen in 6/00. Separately, wages and salaries for civilians increased 2.5% for the year ending 3/15, tops…

While the world population of barnyard animals continually grows, the population of whales dwindles. The reason is property rights. Most goats, cows or pigs belong to someone with a strong incentive to protect them. However, whales are owned by no one and thus each whaling nation (primarily Norway and Japan) has a strong incentive to…

In 11/43, manufacturing employment (ME) hit a record 16.6 million and 22 years later in 7/65, hit a new record of 16.7 million. ME then grew and peaked at 19.6 million in 6/79. By the start of the Great Recession in 1/08, there were only 13.7 million manufacturing workers. The trough was in 2/10 when…

In 2013, proved US oil reserves hit a record 36.5 billion barrels and natural gas reserves reached a record 354 trillion cubic feet. However, the level of reserves varies over time. Exploration and technological advances increase them, while production reduces them. Reserves also vary with energy prices. As they rise, more oil becomes recoverable from…

The Friday File: In 2014, flavored, unflavored, carbonated and non-carbonated non-alcoholic beverage sales in the US fell by 1% to 12.76 billion gallons, or 40 gallons/person, the 10th consecutive year of declining volume. The top seller, Coke with a 17.3% market share, followed by Pepsi at 8.7%, Mountain Dew at 5.8%, Dr. Pepper at 5.1%…

The key is less the rollback of the Iranian nuclear program, but more the ability to monitor it in real time. Absent that, it will be impossible to determine if the Iranians are being honest and for us to impose penalties if they cheat. Moreover, a mechanism must be in place to deal with non-compliance…

For those who enjoy worrying about global economic health, here is a handy checklist. Macroeconomic risks have declined, but easy credit and low interest rates have caused pension funds and insurance companies to chase yield and in the process make dumb investments, increasing financial risk. Geopolitical risks from Iran, Syria, Ukraine and Yemen have worsened,…

Perhaps surprisingly, 56% of federal and state welfare program spending (EITC, Medicaid, TANF and food stamps) went to households headed by a working adult. 52% of fast-food workers receive government assistance, 48% of home care workers, 46% of child-care workers and amazingly, 25% of part-time college faculty receive government assistance. 74% of EITC monies, 61%…

The California drought can be overcome with a grand compromise. Shift some water from agriculture to residential use. Purify wastewater into drinking water, recycle graywater to be reused as irrigation, and improve stormwater retention. Simultaneously, raise the price of water, yet keep the cost of the first 10,000 gallons/month for residential users low so daily…