Month: August 2014
While the Bank of Japan is engaging in expansionary monetary policy and the ECB probably will in early 2015, the Bank of England will likely raise rates by 4/15 with the Fed following soon thereafter. While this monetary policy divergence…
Read MoreThe Friday File: The #1 wine producing nation in 2013 was Italy with 1.2 billion gallons (BG). Spain followed with 1.13 BG then France with 1.1 BG. Collectively, these three nations produced 46.8% of all wine. Rounding out the top…
Read MoreIn 2012, in the midst of a terrible drought and skyrocketing demand from China, front-month wheat futures went as high as $9.35/bushel and soybeans for as much as $17.94/bushel. Today, a combination of flat demand and perfect weather have farmers…
Read MoreOn one hand, small business optimism is at a post-recession high, the budget deficit at 2.8% of GDP is at its lowest level since 2008, and job openings are back at pre-recession levels. On the other hand, retail sales disappointed…
Read MoreGDP growth over the next year will be largely determined by the rate of growth in gross private domestic investment. It’s composed of spending by firms on tools, machinery and factories, as well as residential construction and inventory changes. Inventories…
Read MoreA major reason why new home building has not substantially recovered is because outside of the upper classes real wages have been stagnant since the end of Great Recession. Worse, despite a rising stock market, a majority of Americans own…
Read MoreThe Friday File: Dividing the number of persons moving to a state by those moving to and moving from the state give the percentage of in-migrants. Using this method, Oregon is the most popular state with 61% of movers moving…
Read MoreLast week’s first time claims for unemployment insurance came in at 289,000, the second lowest reading since May 2000. Importantly, the claims numbers from three weeks ago, which came in at 279,000, were the absolute lowest since May 2000 (yes,…
Read MoreThe poorest fifth of all households earn 3% of aggregate income and pay 0.4% of all federal taxes. The next quintile earns 7.6% of income and pays 3.8% of taxes. The middle quintile earns 12% and pays 9.1%, the 4th…
Read MoreA cornerstone of international trade is nations that run trade surpluses can be confident that the money they acquire by running trade surpluses, almost always US dollars, will hold its purchasing power over time. If there is a move away…
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