Month: June 2013

What’s Your Name?

06/28/2013

The Friday File: In 2012, the three most popular girls’ names in descending order were Sophia, Emma and Isabella. For boys, it was Jacob, Mason and Ethan. In 2012, the girl’s name most rapidly rising in popularity was Arya; for…

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Less is Less

06/27/2013

One reason the economy has been growing slowly is due to large productivity increases. GDP is 3% higher than before the bust, yet employment is down by 1.6%. Similarly, industrial production is 2% shy of its all-time high, yet capacity…

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Home Building Continues

06/26/2013

Despite Case-Shiller showing a 12.1% rise in home prices for the year ending 4/13, it’s probably the end of big price increases. The recent jump in mortgage rates (which reduces demand) and the first sustained month-over-month increase in housing inventories…

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Emerging Volatility

06/25/2013

As the Fed flooded the US economy with cash, some of it ended up in emerging markets where risks and returns are higher than here. With US rates now rising, financial markets in those countries are being badly hit. Simultaneously…

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Bang Up Banks

06/24/2013

While rising long-term interest rates will hurt banks by reducing the value of their bond portfolios, that will be a one-time hit and banks are exceptionally well capitalized and will easily withstand the losses. Conversely, a widening spread between short-term…

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Baby Bounce

06/21/2013

The Friday File: Retailers expect Britons to spend $100 million toasting the arrival the Duke and Duchess of Cambridge’s first child in July. Another $40 million will be spent on party food, $207 million on commemorative memorabilia and books and…

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Vicious Volatility

06/20/2013

On days like today when stocks, bonds, precious metals, commodities and emerging markets all fall, portfolio diversification, doesn’t help. Remember that. Separately, financial markets have wiped out all of May and June’s gains not because QE3 will end, but because…

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Fractious Fed

06/19/2013

With the Fed (and everyone else) forecasting improved economic conditions in the second half of ’13, it’s not surprising that the Fed again reiterated that it MAY start tapering QE3 later this year. Interestingly, the Fed has been consistently over-optimistic…

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Cars in Neutral

06/18/2013

Since hitting a low of 9 million in annualized auto sales in 2/09, strong demand has propelled new-car sales to 15.3 million as of 5/13. However, sales have flat-lined of late and are barely higher than in 1/13. This is…

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Pump it Up

06/17/2013

Despite a US Energy Information Administration report that global oil reserves are 10% higher than in 2011, due to the discovery of 345 billion barrels of shale oil, don’t expect lower pump prices. This is because unlike Alaskan oil, shale…

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