Month: April 2013
Since the previous GDP peak in 12/07, real GDP has risen 3.18% or about $400 billion, yet total employment is down by 2.07% or about 2.9 million persons. This is because today’s workers are more productive. How much more? In…
Read MoreDespite residential construction being on the mend, its contribution to GDP is tiny. During Q1 2013, the value of new single family construction was just $157 billion, or 0.98% of GDP, while residential improvements contributed $161 billion or 1%. This…
Read MoreThe Friday File: Every percentage point increase in state income taxes faced by free-agent baseball players raises their salary by $22,500/year. By contrast, the same tax increase reduces slightly the average skill level of free-agent basketball player signings. It’s because…
Read MoreSince 3/12 the unemployment rate has fallen 0.6%, and the labor-force participation rate (LFPR) has fallen by 0.5%. If by 3/14 the LFPR falls another 0.5%, it would take only 107,000 new jobs/month to get the unemployment rate down another…
Read MoreThree weeks ago, the United Nations voted to link arms sales to the human rights record of the buyers. While superficially appealing, this treaty is worthless. The treaty only covers exports (not imports), countries that didn’t vote for the treaty…
Read MoreIn yet another sign the housing market is strengthening, the number of distressed sales (foreclosures and short sales) has declined dramatically. Moreover, short sales now generally outnumber foreclosures in most cities, a far cry from the situation just last year.…
Read MoreWith the mortgage refinancing wave largely over, mortgage originations will decline considerably in 2013, perhaps by as much as 50%. That said, home equity lines of credit will become increasingly popular as homeowners struggle to extract cash from their homes,…
Read More