Archive for April 2013
Peaking Out
Since the previous GDP peak in 12/07, real GDP has risen 3.18% or about $400 billion, yet total employment is down by 2.07% or about 2.9 million persons. This is because today’s workers are more productive. How much more? In 12/07, GDP/worker was $96,526; now it’s $101,706, an increase of 5.37%. Because productivity/worker usually increases,…
Read MoreRenovation Run
Despite residential construction being on the mend, its contribution to GDP is tiny. During Q1 2013, the value of new single family construction was just $157 billion, or 0.98% of GDP, while residential improvements contributed $161 billion or 1%. This was the 18th straight quarter where spending on improvements exceeded new single family construction! All…
Read MoreTough Taxes
The Friday File: Every percentage point increase in state income taxes faced by free-agent baseball players raises their salary by $22,500/year. By contrast, the same tax increase reduces slightly the average skill level of free-agent basketball player signings. It’s because baseball teams have no real salary cap, while basketball teams are very constrained. Thus, basketball…
Read MoreWant a Job?
Since 3/12 the unemployment rate has fallen 0.6%, and the labor-force participation rate (LFPR) has fallen by 0.5%. If by 3/14 the LFPR falls another 0.5%, it would take only 107,000 new jobs/month to get the unemployment rate down another 0.6%. But if by 3/14 the LFPR returns to where it was on 3/12, it…
Read MoreFinally!
Next week the European Central Bank will finally lower its key interest by a quarter-point to 0.5%, as the euro-region recession continues. Most importantly, Germany, Europe’s largest economy, may now officially be in recession and business confidence is slumping. Meanwhile, across Europe, purchasing managers are indicating continued contraction and exports to China are slowing. While…
Read MoreUNINSPIRING
Three weeks ago, the United Nations voted to link arms sales to the human rights record of the buyers. While superficially appealing, this treaty is worthless. The treaty only covers exports (not imports), countries that didn’t vote for the treaty (Russia) are not bound by it, and do you really think regimes that survive by…
Read MoreArbitrage
One reason the stock market is doing so well is due to stock buybacks. Despite high share prices, for dividend-paying firms with top-notch credit ratings, interest rates have never been lower. These firms are borrowing long-term at 2% to buy back stock with, perhaps, a 4% dividend. And since interest is tax deductible, the borrowing…
Read MoreEat What?
The Friday File: A jalapeno pepper registers 6,200 Scoville heat units (SHU), a Habanero 350,000 SHU, and a Naga Viper 1.382 million SHU which made it the world’s hottest pepper. The title recently transferred to the Trinidad Scorpion Butch T at 1.464 million SHU only to be quickly passed to the Trinidad Moruga Scorpion at…
Read MoreHappy Housing
In yet another sign the housing market is strengthening, the number of distressed sales (foreclosures and short sales) has declined dramatically. Moreover, short sales now generally outnumber foreclosures in most cities, a far cry from the situation just last year. Even if existing home sales don’t increase much in 2013, the fact that distressed sales…
Read MoreHousing Finance
With the mortgage refinancing wave largely over, mortgage originations will decline considerably in 2013, perhaps by as much as 50%. That said, home equity lines of credit will become increasingly popular as homeowners struggle to extract cash from their homes, yet preserve their 3% 30-year mortgage. Also, if the immigration bill moving through Congress changes…
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