Archive for October 2012
Happy Halloween
Halloween spending is expected to hit $8 billion this year. $6.9 billion was spent in ’11 and the cyclical low of $4.8 billion was in ’09. Spending on pet costumes is way up with $370 million projected to be spent this year, up from just $220 million in ’10! The average pumpkin costs $4.79, but…
Read MoreSandy’s Sting
With Sandy disrupting 25% of the population for roughly three-quarters of a percent of the year, its maximum impact shouldn’t exceed $30 billion. But it’s probably less due to heavy telecommuting, Netflix and Amazon! Had Sandy hit an oil refinery or power plant, costs would have skyrocketed. On the plus side, rebuilding what was destroyed…
Read MoreChinese Currency Controls
By setting the value of the Renminbi unfairly low, Chinese exports are made artificially cheap, while (American) imports are artificially expensive. Normally, this would lead to a large increase in the money supply which would drive up domestic prices and negate the unfairly low exchange rate. However, by forcing banks to buy trillions of very…
Read MoreBabes, Bullets and Booze
The Friday File: Of the six actors who have played James Bond, Pierce Brosan was the most violent, knocking off an average of 19 people per film. The short lived George Lazenby, had the most conquests, beating out Sean Connery by a whisker, while the latest Bond, Daniel Craig, has been outstanding in the martini…
Read MoreCostlier Healthcare, Lower Productivity
As healthcare co-payments rise, labor productivity drops as, unsurprisingly, employees buy fewer prescription drugs. For example, employees with chronic pain had 76.7 hours absent from work. But, for every $5 rise in their co-payment, absenteeism increased 1.3% to 3.1%, or about five workdays per year. With average hourly earnings of $31/hour fully loaded, the increase…
Read MoreBernanke Boost
While the economy is hardly roaring, Q3 GDP growth will be 2%, which is pretty good compared to month or two ago when 1.5% is what I would have predicted. Moreover, QE3 should boost Q4 GDP. That’s because the promise of massively stimulative monetary policy for the forseeable future, is suppressing interest rate increases in…
Read MoreHold the Healthcare
24 million workers work 30 hours/week or less. For the purpose of Obamacare, these are part-timers and need not receive employer provide healthcare. Another 10 million workers work between 30 and 35 hours/week. If employers can hold those 10 million workers down to less than 30 hours a week, fully 25% of the labor force…
Read MorePeak Employment
Peak Employment The employment to population ratio peaked at about 65% and just prior to the last recession was 63%. During the recession, the rate quickly plummeted to about 58.5% and has barely budged since. While part of the decline is due to weak growth, it is also partly due to retiring Baby Boomers. Due…
Read MoreMaking a Racket
The Friday File: Old tennis rackets focused on power and a sweet spot. With new polyester blend strings, topspin is in. For every 100 rpm’s of topspin you reduce distance travelled by 6 to 12 inches. Spin is created three ways: the speed at which the racket is swung, the angle at which it hits…
Read MoreHousing Health
Poor families that moved out of bad neighborhoods into mixed-income ones through the use of vouchers, did not show any rise in income level or educational attainment compared to a control group that did not move. Mover families were, however, healthier than the control group. They had lower rates of diabetes, extreme obesity, anxiety and…
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