Yield of Dreams
12/11/2013 | | budget deal, december taper, econ70, Economic forecasting, economist on radio, economist on TV, eisenberg and economics, Eisenberg and housing economics, Eisenberg and public speaking, Elliot eisenberg, Federal Reserve tapering, funniest economist, funny housing economist, Graphsandlaughs, graphsandlaughs and eisenberg, housing sales, MLS, Monetary Policy, mortgage banking, Multiple listing service, politics and economics, Public speaking economist
The recent budget deal which reduces fiscal drag, along with improving employment numbers, the likelihood of faster growth in 2014 and the fact that long-term rates have adjusted to the idea that tapering will soon start, makes me peg the probability of a December taper at 25%, up from zero last month. The Fed will couple any tapering announcement with a statement/policy reassuring markets that short-term rates will remain super-low.