Unemployment is not the Story!

The unemployment rate is falling fast, but for the wrong reasons. In 1/12 the labor force participation rate was 63.7%, the lowest level since ’82 and way below the 66% when the recession began. Had the LFPR rate not fallen, the unemployment rate would now be 10.4%, not 8.3%. And, because the Boomers are fast retiring, it’s unlikely the LFPR will soon rise. That means the unemployment rate will probably continue to fall despite weak job growth.