Posts Tagged ‘unemployment rate’
Understanding Unemployment
With unemployment at 6.7%, close to the 6.5% level at which the Fed has said it would raise short-term rates, the Fed must change its short-term interest rate guidance. The Fed is wrestling with how much slack exists in labor markets and if the swollen ranks of the long-term unemployed will keep wages down or…
Read MoreWant a Job?
Since 3/12 the unemployment rate has fallen 0.6%, and the labor-force participation rate (LFPR) has fallen by 0.5%. If by 3/14 the LFPR falls another 0.5%, it would take only 107,000 new jobs/month to get the unemployment rate down another 0.6%. But if by 3/14 the LFPR returns to where it was on 3/12, it…
Read MoreLaboring On
Last Friday’s mediocre employment report gives the Fed (meeting this week) ample reason to continue buying Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities at the rate of about $80 billion/month for the foreseeable future. As for the employment report, average hourly earnings rose only 1.7% over the past 12 months, while the CPI increased 2.2%! The workweek remained…
Read MoreSurprising Survey
Despite 114,000 jobs being created in September the unemployment rate plummeted to 7.8% from 8.1%. The unemployment rate is based on a tiny survey of 66,000 households that has a margin of error of 400,000! Moreover, the survey is especially bad when seasonal patterns change (and they are among those 20 to 24). The number…
Read MoreRetraction Subtraction
The economy added just 96,000 jobs in August. Worse, the DOL lowered the June and July estimates by 41,000! While the unemployment rate fell to 8.1%, it did so only because 368,000 Americans left the labor force, reducing the participation rate to 63.5% from 63.7%, its lowest level since 9/81. Factory employment fell by 15,000,…
Read MoreUnemployment is not the Story!
The unemployment rate is falling fast, but for the wrong reasons. In 1/12 the labor force participation rate was 63.7%, the lowest level since ’82 and way below the 66% when the recession began. Had the LFPR rate not fallen, the unemployment rate would now be 10.4%, not 8.3%. And, because the Boomers are fast…
Read MoreThe Unparticipation Rate
The latest employment report was great, but a little perspective, please. The labor force participation rate is now 63.7% it lowest level since 5/83! (The all-time high was 67.3% in 3/00). Worse, since the recession ended in 6/09, rather than rising, the LFPR has continued to fall from 65.7% to its current anemic rate of…
Read MoreNo Help Wanted
The labor market is suffering from sclerosis. While employers are no longer firing workers – the percentage of workers laid off or fired in 10/11 was lower than in ’07, before the recession – they also aren’t hiring. Similarly, few of the employed are quitting their jobs. Usually about 2% of all workers quit their…
Read MoreExcellent Employment!
Hallelujah! The economy gained 244K jobs in April! Payroll data for Feb and March were also revised up by a combined 46K! Hiring in the private sector posted the largest increase in 5 years and was broad based! Ignore the rise in the unemployment rate to 9%. The bad news; gov’t employment fell 24K, avg…
Read MoreDeceptive Decline
Today’s decline in the unemployment rate is deceptive. It shows is that people have stopped looking for jobs. The Civilian Labor Force Participation Rate declined to 64.3% last month and is way off its all time high of 67.3% of early 2000. Had the CLFPR remained unchanged, the unemployment rate would now be about 13.4%
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