Really it’s Recession

U.S. consumer confidence (Conference Board survey) jumped to 70.4 in Feb from 64.8 in Jan; the 5th increase in a row and best level since Feb ‘08. But, we are 20 months into a recovery, and 70.4 is the second lowest level of consumer confidence ever at this stage of the cycle. What is typical for this stage is for confidence to average 88. So 70.4 is really a number more closely resembling recession than expansion.