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Sales Strength

02/22/2021

January is normally a weak month for home sales. But not this January. Thus, the seasonal adjustments that are always made to allow for month-to-month comparisons are not valid. For example, had last month’s sales occurred in October, the season…

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Ganga Grazing

02/19/2021

The Friday File: While marijuana is increasingly considered harmless, there are unintended consequences. Comparing retail scanner data in counties located in CO, OR, and WA where recreational marijuana is legal to counties where it’s not, sales of high calorie foods…

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Super Spending

02/18/2021

January retail sales jumped a smoking 5.3% M-o-M and arrested a surprising three-month decline. This was the biggest increase since June’s 8% rise when the economy was exiting lockdown, and the fourth largest bounce since at least 1992. Spending rose…

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Power Problem

02/17/2021

If small changes in price lead to large changes in quantity demanded, think pizza, the item is elastic. Some goods, like gasoline, are inelastic. A change in that price does not alter the amount driven. Some things are infinitely inelastic,…

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Labor Largess

02/16/2021

Since recordkeeping began in 1939, the 4.3 million net jobs created in 1946, the start of the post-WWII expansion, was tops. However, the recently passed $900 billion Covid-19 relief bill, rising vaccination rates, and now $1.9 trillion stimulus from the…

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Credit Comedown

02/15/2021

Total American Express cardholder spending (an admittedly well-heeled group) fell 15% in 20Q4 Y-o-Y, compared to 19% in 20Q3 Y-o-Y, and 34% in 20Q2 Y-o-Y. Travel and entertainment fell 65% in 20Q4 Y-o-Y, an improvement from -69% in 20Q3 Y-o-Y…

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Happy Hearts

02/12/2021

The Friday File: This Valentine’s Day, spending is expected to reach a whopping $27.4 billion, way up from $20.7 billion last year, and $19.6 billion in 2019. Clearly a case of pent-up pandemic demand. The average amount spent is expected…

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Increasing Inflation

02/11/2021

The combination of the $900 billion support package signed by President Trump in December, the virtual certainty of another $1.9 trillion Democratic aid package, the probability of a large infrastructure/stimulus bill in February, and the Fed’s desire to keep rates…

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Happy Help

02/10/2021

The number of help-wanted ads is now 0.7% higher than its pre-pandemic level a year ago. During the worst of the pandemic, the difference was -39%. Relatedly, the number of job openings hit 6.646 million in 12/20, exceeding the 6.552…

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Minimum Money

02/09/2021

Had the current minimum wage of $7.25/hour increased annually by the rate of inflation it would now be $9/hour. Since the minimum wage was adopted in 1938, its inflation-adjusted value peaked in 1968 when it became $1.60/hour, about $12 today.…

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