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Since the inflation we are experiencing appears likely to linger somewhat longer, calling it transitory may no longer be justified. Rather, what about ephemeral? Expansionary monetary policy is coming to an end and will become contractionary by late 2022. Similarly,…

Absent a debt ceiling increase, the US will begin running out of money by mid-October. One solution, a $1 trillion coin made by the Treasury and deposited at the Fed. Presto, a trillion dollars! The problem – this has the…

Over the last eight months, Covid-19 vaccination rate disparities between racial and ethnic groups, no matter how defined, have disappeared. However, gaps reflecting political affiliation have widened precipitously. At present, among those 18 and over, 92% of Democrats, 68% of…

From the dotcom bust in 3/01 to the Housing Bust in 1/08, household savings rates steadily fell from 6% to just 3%, of course house prices were skyrocketing. From the Housing Bust through 12/14, savings rates rose to 8% and…

The Friday File: In 2011, “mesothelioma” was the most costly keyword to bid on in Google Ads, at a cost per click of $42.51. Of late, “law” keywords (like car accident lawyer, malpractice lawyer) are even more expensive at $54.86/click,…

While 21Q3 GDP estimates keep getting lowered due to the Delta variant, 21Q4 estimates are being raised somewhat as the Delta variant pushes some spending from 21Q3 into 21Q4. Overall, 2021 GDP is likely to come in at 5.75%, lower…

If the debt ceiling isn’t raised, the Fed could ameliorate some of the worst impacts. It could offer to buy unlimited amounts of defaulted Treasuries, preventing panic selling. It could similarly sell some of its Treasury stock that is not…

Between 1959 and 2021, the number of male students for every 100 women fell by 62%! Thus, by the conclusion of the 2020/21 academic year, women were 59.5% of college students, a new record. Moreover, after four years of college…

The biggest sources of economic tail risk through 21Q4 are, in order of concern, a material rise in inflation, a market taper tantrum like 2013, a new and worse Covid-19 variant, the frothy stock market deflating, and souring relations vis-a-vis…

The Friday File: For the year ending 5/31/21, Nevada had the most legal sports wagering at $14.6 billion, resulting in $910 million in revenue and $61.4 million in taxes. NJ followed with a handle of $14.4 billion, $982 million in…