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Earlier today the Fed reduced the rate of its purchases of Treasuries and MBS by $20 billion/month and $10 billion/month respectively. Thus, in 3/22 tapering will conclude, paving the way for as many as three quarter-point rate hikes in CY2022,…

While inflation is currently quite elevated, it is important to note that monetary policy works with lags of 12-18 months before the impact of rate changes are fully felt. Thus, the Fed would have had to (among other things) anticipate…

November CPI inflation came in at 6.8%, the highest reading since 6/82, core CPI came in 4.9% its highest since 5/91. Why? The combination of profound consumer demand and simultaneous massive supply-chain problems preventing supply from increasing. The last time…

The Friday File: The vehicle with the longest production run is the Chevrolet Suburban at 86 years. It began production in 1935. In second, the Ford F-Series at 74 and first came out in 1947. The Volkswagen Transporter follows at…

At the end of 10/21, the latest month for which data are available, there were 11 million US job openings compared to just 6.9 million unemployed persons, a ratio of 1.6 open jobs/unemployed person, OMG! Unsurprisingly, the quit rate is…

While mRNA vaccines by Moderna and Pfizer-BioNtech are most effective against Delta variant with effectiveness rates of 90% or better against hospitalization and death, AstraZeneca’s and J&J’s vaccines follow at 80% or better. However, injections from Sinopharm/Sinovac appear to be…

The home ownership vacancy rate is 0.9%, the lowest rate since at least 1956. The rental vacancy rate is 5.8%, the lowest rate since 1984. Existing inventory is 1.27 million, the lowest October reading in over 20 years, built new…

US employers added 210,000 jobs in November (which will undoubtedly be revised upward next month) as labor demand slightly slowed and labor supply grew as the labor-force participation rate rose to 61.8%. As a result, wage growth slowed to 0.3%…

The Friday File: At present there are five Covid-19 variants of concern: alpha, beta, gamma, delta and omicron. There are two variants of interest: lambda and mu, and three former variants of interest now classified as variants under monitoring: kappa,…

In September, the latest month for which data exists, a staggering 3% or 4.4 million US employees quit their jobs. At the bottom of the wage-scale it’s due to a desire to avoid face-to-face contact. That should dissipate as jobs…