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The latest Case-Shiller National HPI showed a 19.1% Y-o-Y increase in home prices, down from 19.5% last month, and 19.8% the month before. The 19.1% reading remains the 4th highest ever. The latest Y-o-Y reading of the Federal Housing Finance…

In contrast to disturbing inflationary surges in the US, Canada, UK, and to a lesser extent Europe, in China and Japan inflation has largely been absent. In both nations a government-induced stimulus-fueled consumption surge never materialized. De-leveraging efforts have continued…

New home sales rose in mid-2020 from a pace of 700,000/year to 975,000/year but fully returned to their 700,000/year pre-Covid pace by 5/21. Similarly, existing sales ramped up to a Covid-19 induced level of 6.75 million/year in mid-2020, from 5.4…

Inflation, measured by the Christmas Price Index and based on purchasing one of each day’s items in “The Twelve Days of Christmas,” rose 5.7% to $41,206 from $38,994 in 2019, lower than the CPI rise of 6.2%. Fowl lead the…

While the Fed has commenced tapering its purchases of MBS and Treasuries by $15 billion/Month, this will only very indirectly reduce inflation. It’s because inflation is being generated primarily by supply constraints, not easy money. The best solution would be…

The recently passed $1.2 trillion infrastructure bill, including $550 billion in new spending beyond the current baseline should boost long-run GDP by, at most, 0.1%, or $22 billion/year. As infrastructure spending ramps up, GDP will rise by an extra $33…

From 1949-1966, 20% of Americans moved/year. The percentage steadily declined; by the early 1980s 16% of us moved/year. In the mid-1980s the ratio recovered but has since fallen to 8.4%! Worse, through the 1960s persons steadily moved from poorer areas…

November single-family housing starts fell to an annualized rate of 1.173 million, from 1.182 million Y-o-Y. Meanwhile, multifamily starts jumped from 369,000 in 11/20 to 506,000 in 11/21. Flat single-family starts amidst booming demand and the fact that the number…

The Friday File: Since invented in Britain in 1804 and averaging less than 10 mph, trains have only gotten substantially faster. Japan’s “Bullet Train” in 1964 was the world’s first high-speed rail system and achieved a top speed of 125…

The three most pressing geopolitical problems are Russia’s potential invasion of Ukraine, China’s potential invasion of Taiwan, and Iran’s dash to a nuclear device. Markets will largely ignore Russia/Ukraine as neither are global players and Europe won’t stop Russian energy…