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GDP growth is the result of increases in the labor force and improvements in labor productivity. Regrettably, the pool of new job entrants has been declining dramatically of late. The average annualized growth in the working age population went from…

The number of job openings fell to 11.3 million in January from 11.4 million in December, the December number was an all-time high. Pre-Covid-19, the number was just 7 million. Relatedly, the quit rate is now 2.8%/month, down slightly from…

The Friday File: With the price of nickel recently quintupling in value to $100,000/metric ton, a nickel is now worth about 16 cents in metal or “melt” value. Each nickel weighs five grams and contains 1.25 grams of nickel, worth…

While the Russian invasion of Ukraine is already raising inflationary pressures due to rising prices for a broad range of commodities including oil and wheat, long-term rates have counterintuitively fallen since the war began. This is because of a massive…

The Fed will raise rates a quarter point in the next week, the European Central Bank will move much slower. The EU economy was already meaningfully weaker than the US before Russia’s invasion. The US is the world’s #1 oil…

The last time WTI oil exceeded $130/bbl, like it almost does now, was between 5/21/08 when it rose to $131.58/bbl and 7/21/08 when it fell to $131.43, peaking on 7/14/08 at $145.16/bbl. That resulted in gasoline peaking at $4.11/gallon on…

Nonfarm payrolls grew by a gobsmacking 678,000 in February with upward revisions to December and January totaling 92,000. The unemployment rate dropped to 3.8% despite a rise in the labor force participation rate to a post-Covid high of 62.3%. With…

The Friday File: Among persons who’ve use food delivery services within the past year, the most popular is DoorDash with 54% of such persons using it. Second is Domino’s at 47%, then Uber Eats and Pizza Hut each at 37%.…

Russia and Ukraine produce 25% of world wheat and 30% of exports. While last year’s crop has already been mostly exported, the bigger issue is the 2022 crop. If farmers can’t harvest and ship already planted production, global wheat prices…

2022 will be the 4th time baseball has lost games due to a work stoppage. While average attendance/game declined in strike-shortened 1972 and 1981 it quickly recovered. However, it took 12 years to surpass the average attendance record of 31,256/game…