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The Friday File: Today, Guy LaFleur died. He was the first hockey player to score 50 goals and 100 points in six straight seasons, won five Stanley Cups with my Montreal Canadiens, is in the Hall of Fame, and was…

In March 2021, the median house price was $326,350 and the interest rate on a 30-yr mortgage was 3.10%. Assuming 20% down, the monthly payment, excluding taxes and property insurance, was $1,115/month. Today, the same house costs $375,300, or 15%…

Chinese exports are softening, real estate is sinking, the stock market is tanking, the Central Bank is easing policy, and 45 cities with 373 million persons, representing 40% of GDP, are living under full or partial lockdown, up from 23…

While most office buildings have not experienced large increases in vacancies due to the long-term nature of leases, this year leases for 243 million square feet come due, 11% of all US office space; the most ever in a year.…

With the 10-year Treasury at 2.8%, based on historical relationships, a 30-year conventional mortgage should have a rate of 4.5%, however, it’s now over 5%! I suspect that this is because investors expect the Fed to keep raising rates. Given…

The Friday File: Looking at tax burden – the proportion of personal income paid towards state and local taxes – NY has the highest burden at 12.75%, followed by HI at 12.70%, ME at 11.42%, VT at 11.13%, and MN…

Historically, new home construction and auto sales were generally good indicators of the economic health of households. Now, less so. With supply-chains a mess, input prices up dramatically, and labor in short supply, lower-priced product is not much being made,…

Chair Powell points out that in 1965, 1984, and 1994, the Fed raised rates and a recession didn’t ensue. However, in all those cases the Fed was pre-emptive and was trying to prevent inflation from rising. Now they need to…

While inflation is more pronounced in the USA at roughly 8%, it’s now over 5% in 58% of advanced economies, and over 7% in 55% of emerging economies. Even excluding energy, inflation has increased widely. This suggests that both rounds…

For the week ending 4/2/22, the number of first-time claims for unemployment, a proxy for layoffs, was a remarkable 166,000, the lowest level since the week ending 11/30/68, well over 50 years ago, when the US population was 60% of…