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Canadian mortgage rates have risen from 1.5% last fall to 4% now, a 12-year high. This has resulted in April home sales dropping 27% M-o-M and 41.2% Y-o-Y in Toronto. While prices are up 15% Y-o-Y, they are down from…

In March and April, the CPI was above 8% Y-o-Y. Since 1950, this has only occurred in 1951, 1974, and 1979-1981. Inflation this bad is rare. Fortunately, it will probably decline to 4%/year by mid-2023 as supply problems ebb and…

The Friday File: A recent peer-reviewed study in BMC Psychology suggests “a direct association between celebrity worship and poorer performance on cognitive tests.” Persons more interested in the lives of their favorite celebrities generally performed less well on cognitive ability…

Rates are up significantly since 1/1/22 because the Fed has made clear it will raise rates substantially over the next 6-12 months. Another reason is because the Fed will be substantially reducing the amount of bonds and mortgage-backed securities it…

While the NAHB Housing Market Index of builder sentiment is at 69, which is not bad, it’s fallen from a peak of 90 in 11/20. Since 1985, and the start of the index, three of the four times it’s declined…

In 2021, fiscal policy added four percentage points to GDP, in 2022 it will subtract three, a seven-percentage point swing, something not seen since at least 1960. Moreover, the dollar is at its strongest level in decades, further reducing inflation.…

Since 1/1/22, the 30-yr mortgage/10-year Treasuries spread widened by three quarters of a point. Why? The Fed announced that it will be reducing its balance sheet and they were a non-interest rate sensitive buyer. Volatility, be it actual or implied,…

The Friday File: Through 2020, the level of wealth needed to join the top 1% of the population in a nation was highest in Monaco at $7.9 million. The US was third globally and tops in North America at $4.4…

Prior to the Russian takeover of Crimea in 2014, new automobile sales in Russia were at a rate of about 200,000/month or 2.5 million a year. After the annexation and the imposition of some sanctions by the West, which meaningfully…

Y-o-Y CPI inflation eased to 8.3% from 8.5% in April, the first decline since 8/21, but the decline was tiny. Worse, while core-inflation, which excludes food and energy, slid from 6.5%, to 6.2%, M-o-M it rose 0.6% from 0.3% in…