70 Words
In early 1972, with the fed funds rate at 3%, the Fed began raising rates to quash inflation. By 11/73, the fed funds rate exceeded 10% and the economy entered a deep recession. The Fed continued raising rates ultimately pushing…
Read MoreThe US economy can currently best be described as a Schrodinger Economy. On one hand, 22Q1 GDP was -1.6%, 22Q2 is likely to come in at no better than 0%, real incomes are declining, the yield curve is flat, equities…
Read MoreThe Friday File: This July 4th 84% of the US population will be celebrating, unchanged from last year, and way up from just 76% in 2020. Independence fever was highest in 2013 when 90% celebrated. The baseline is 88%. 5%…
Read MoreCPI inflation is 8.5%. Market-based inflation expectations (MBIE) one year from now are 4.8%, MBIE over the five-year period starting a year from now are 2.32%, and MBIE over the five-year period starting in five years are just 2.26%. These…
Read MoreFollowing the most recent 75bps rate hike by the Fed, the NY Fed’s economic model pegs the chances of a recession, or a hard-landing, defined as one quarter in which Y-o-Y GDP growth is negative between now and the end…
Read MoreBond yields have been particularly volatile of late as markets struggle to understand the simultaneous impacts of inflation, which is being driven by the Russian invasion of Ukraine, supply-chain issues and rising inflation expectations, which collectively push yields up, and…
Read MoreWhile a recession is highly likely, it’s not guaranteed, and the odds of one rise the more the Fed must act on its own. That is, the White House and Congress can more deftly reduce inflation as the combination of…
Read MoreThe Friday File: Earlier this week, Dimitri Muratov, the editor-in-chief of Novaya Gazeta, a newspaper fiercely critical of President Putin and that suspended operations in March after state warnings, auctioned off his 2021 Nobel Peace Prize medal to aid displaced…
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