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Traditionally, economists preferred looking at core inflation, which excludes food and energy vs. headline inflation as core is much less volatile. However, since Covid in 3/20, it’s become wildly volatile. Where in the past Core PCE inflation was bounded by…

The Friday File: Earlier this week, NASA sent a bus-size spacecraft travelling at over 14,000/mph directly into a 525-foot-wide asteroid called Dimorphos, seven million miles away from Earth. Sounds tricky. The aim, to see if the crash alters the asteroids’…

Mortgage rates are getting hit twice over. On 9/27/22, the 10-year Treasury briefly hit 4%, up from 1.52% on 12/31/21, the fastest rise since 1981, as inflation fears worsen. Additionally, the spread between the rising 10-year Treasury and the 30-year…

While some talk of a UK currency crisis, concern is misplaced. Currency crises occur in nations with floating exchange rates for one of two reasons, either when the nation in question has large debts denominated in foreign currency or when…

The Dow Jones Transportation Average, which tracks 20 large US firms including trucking, airlines, and railroads fell 12% month-to-date, double the decline of the S&P 500. Declines in transportation suggest less need for goods, materials and travel, unsurprising given high…

Of all IPOs on US exchanges last year, 87% are trading below their IPO price compared to the 23% fall in the S&P 500 this year and the 31% decline in the Nasdaq Composite. This is the worst year for…

The Friday File: US per capita beer consumption is tops in North Dakota at 45.8 gallons/year followed very closely by NH at 43.9, and Montana at 41.0. SD is next at 38.9, WI follows at 36.2. In 26th, the median…

August housing starts unexpectedly rose to a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 1.575 million. While up 12.2% M-o-M, starts dipped 0.1% Y-o-Y. More significantly, single-family starts at 935,000, while up from 904,000 M-o-M are, ignoring the first months of Covid-19,…

While the 75bps hike in the Fed funds rate was fully anticipated, the surprise was the committee’s plan to raise rates another 125bps at their two remaining 2022 meetings. Moreover, they now finally forecast the unemployment rate to rise to…

Currently, the unemployment rate is 3.7%, up from 3.5% in July. While 3.5% equaled the 2/20 pre-covid low and is the lowest unemployment rate since 11/69, when we were in Vietnam, it dramatically understates labor market tightness. In 2/20, when…