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Ten Senate Republicans have recently introduced legislation giving priority to debt service, salaries for troops, and Social Security. While the Treasury probably can prioritize payments in this fashion and thus avoid defaulting, this still creates very large payment delays. Given…

On 2/1/23, the Fed, unsurprisingly, raised rates 25bps. Moreover, they strongly suggested two more hikes of 25bps are in store and that there will be no rate cuts in 2023. Markets rallied, believing not only that the Fed won’t raise…

Existing home sales fell 1.5% M-o-M in December, the 11th straight monthly decline, and declined to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of just 4.02 million. Y-o-Y sales fell 17.8% Y-o-Y to 5.03 million. Fortunately, the sales decline is likely over.…

The U.S. economy grew 2.9% in 22Q4, down slightly from 3.2% in 22Q3. In 2022, GDP grew 1%, a pleasant surprise given negative growth in 22H1. However, stripping out inventory changes, net trade, and government spending to get at the…

The Friday File: While the first text message was sent on 12/3/92, it took until 2005 for the number of SMS/MMS messages sent in the U.S. to exceed 100 billion, probably because they cost $0.10/text. Then they became free, and…

If the debt limit is not increased, the amount of tax increases or spending cuts required to stay under the existing debt limit this year would be $1.5 trillion and would be $14 trillion over the next decade. Relatedly, in…

The Index of Leading Economic indicators fell again in December, this time by 1%, the tenth consecutive monthly decline, with the monthly declines generally worsening over time. Moreover, with data going back to 1970, the last seven times the index…

Home price declines in December are unsurprising, what is surprising is the size of the decline we are seeing. For the four years ending 12/21, the December price declines from the peak in that same year ranged from -7% in…

In 1965, the average workweek for production and nonsupervisory workers was 38.6 hours, close to the mythical 40-hour workweek. It’s declined ever since, we are wealthier. In 1975 it was 36 hours, in 1985 it fell to 34.9, in 1995…

The Friday File: As recently as 2004, 90% of US households had a landline phone. By 2008 it was 80%, by late 2010 it was 70%, and by mid-2013 it was 60%. In mid-2015, landlines were in just 50% of…