70 Words

Starter Shortage

02/16/2023

From 1976 through 1979, 418,000 entry-level single-family houses/year were built, 34% of all new homes constructed. In the 1980s, the number fell to 314,000/year, still 33% of all new homes built. In the 1990s it shrank to just 207,000/year, and…

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Imposing Inflation

02/15/2023

While inflation fell from 6.5% Y-o-Y in 12/22 to 6.4% in 1/23, and core inflation similarly declined from 5.7% to 5.6%, its fourth straight decline, the declines are moderating. Worse, core-services inflation, which excludes energy and is the Fed’s favorite…

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Valuable Valentine

02/14/2023

In 2023, persons in a relationship plan to spend an average of $187 on Valentine’s Day gifts, down from a record $208 in 2022 but up from $144 in 2021. More interestingly, those in a dating relationship expect their partner…

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Discharge Data

02/13/2023

While many firms are laying off staff, be it Amazon winnowing 18,000 or Disney culling 7,000, they all cut roughly 5% of their workforce. These firms probably decided in late 2022 based on economic conditions to start layoffs in early…

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Pigskin Prognostications

02/10/2023

The Friday File: For Super Bowl LVII the Kansas City Chiefs will wear white jerseys, the Philadelphia Eagles green jerseys. Since SB I the team wearing white jerseys has won 64% of the time. Unrelatedly, the 74% accurate Super Bowl…

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Work Whereabouts

02/09/2023

During the week of 1/23/23, average office use was 50.4% of its pre-pandemic level, the first time it has exceeded 50% since the start of the Covid pandemic. The office worker visit trough was 15% in spring 2020. Of the…

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Budget Bluster

02/08/2023

With cuts to Social Security and Medicare (at 23% and 14% of the budget) now apparently off the table, that leaves just 63% of the budget. But not really. Net interest is 8% and defense is 14%. That leaves just…

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Construction Concerns

02/07/2023

After a review of 16,000 megaprojects including skyscrapers, airports, museums, concert halls, nuclear reactors, roads, and hydroelectric dams across 136 nations, data show 47.9% are delivered on budget, 8.5% are delivered on budget and on time, and 0.5% are delivered…

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Jolly January

02/06/2023

January net payrolls rose by a staggering 517,000, and the unemployment rate fell to 3.4%, its lowest level since 5/69. Moreover, the average workweek, which had been steadily falling since peaking at 35 hours in 1/21, shot up from 34.4…

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Superb Skiing

02/03/2023

The Friday File: 27-year-old Mikaela Shiffrin recently won her 83rd and 84th World Cup victories in her illustrious career. In the process, she broke the women’s record set by fellow American Lindsey Vonn, who retired at 34. With three more…

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